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2015.02.18 :Forex News: Greek issue still unsolved, Fed Meeting Minutes ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency.

Technical Outlook
Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.

GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being.

Technical Outlook
Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the bunk of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.02.19 :Forex News: Pound breakout identified, Euro still in a range

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed Meeting Minutes, the pair headed towards 1.1360 and the bears even managed to break this level but the Minutes generated US Dollar weakness and the pair reversed its previous movement.

Technical Outlook
The pair is still ranging and 1.1360 cannot be broken for the time being so the picture remains unclear and the technical side remains secondary to the fundamental as a solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been found yet. The bullish move seen when the FOMC Meeting Minutes came out is not very strong and a reversal could easily occur when and if price hits 1.1440 resistance. Until the mentioned resistance or 1.1360 support is clearly broken the pair will remain in a range.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Central bunk will release today at 12:30 pm GMT their Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This is a document which contains details about the reasons which influenced their latest interest rate decision and is a practice recently introduced by the ECB. If the document is more hawkish than expected, the Euro will be positively affected.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is the main mover for the US Dollar and is expected to increase from the previous 6.3 to 8.8, a fact which would strengthen the greenback and take the pair lower. The time of the release is 3:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The British unemployment claims were fewer than analysts expected and this was a catalyst for Pound strength during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. The dovish stance of the Fed added to the climb and resistance was clearly broken.

Technical Outlook
Based on yesterday’s bullish movement we consider the minor resistance at 1.5420 to be clearly broken and we expect an extended move into the next resistance level located at 1.5540. However, this does not exclude bearish movement, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought levels; a move below 1.5420 would invalidate the break and would be a sign of bull weakness.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus we expect a day with price action driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.02.20 :Forex News: The Greek “bubble” is about to burst. Breakout imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday Germany rejected a Greek loan proposal so the Greek debt issue still remains a top priority which needs to be addressed and solved as soon as possible. The U.S. Manufacturing index disappointed and the day was characterized by ranging price action.

Technical Outlook
Lately the pair is bouncing between 1.1440 resistance and 1.1360 support and this behavior is likely to continue until a solution to the Greek issue is found. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average doesn’t do much to show us the next direction as it lacks momentum and a clear angle and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index. The only indicator with some value for recent price action is the Stochastic which follows price pretty accurately so if we were to trust it, we should expect another encounter with the resistance located at 1.1440. A break of 1.1360 would open the door for a touch of 1.1270 support.

Fundamental Outlook
France will release their Manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT, with an expected figure of 49.7. A half an hour later the same indicator but for the German economy is released, with an anticipated value of 51.8; usually if the actual value of these indicators surpasses analysts’ expectations, the Euro is positively affected but sometimes their release goes unnoticed. Special attention must be paid to the Eurogroup meetings as finance ministers and other important figures meet in search of a Greek compromise.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a slow day, mainly because no major British economic news was released and the U.S. indicators failed to create a lot of volatility.

Technical Outlook
Although price broke 1.5420, the bulls failed to capitalize on this break and no major advances were made yesterday. Currently price is testing the recently broken level but the bears are also showing lack of interest or strength as they didn’t manage to take price below the mentioned level. If the test results in a bounce, the first barrier is located at 1.5460 and a more important one at 1.5540. If 1.5420 is broken to the downside, the first support is located at 1.5340 but a lot will depend on the British retail sales data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
The retail sales data mentioned above is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is -0.1%, while last month we saw a 0.4% increase. Since sales made at retail levels represent a hefty part of the entire economic activity, today’s release is considered a high impact event; values above analysts’ expectations are usually beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.02.23 :Forex News: Market indecision still present. Greece still in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro briefly strengthened when news came out that an accord was reached between Greek officials and European finance ministers, but the initial rally was quickly reversed and the ranging period didn’t come to an end.

Technical Outlook
Given the latest developments our view remains neutral on the pair as long as 1.1440 is still resistance and 1.1270 is still support. From a 4-hour perspective the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and both oscillators (RSI and Stochastic) lack clear direction so a technical prediction is difficult to be accurate. The Euro will be possibly affected today by more discussions between Greek and Eurogroup officials so we recommend increased caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The German IFO Business Climate will offer insights into the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current and future economic conditions. The scheduled time of release is 9:00 am GMT, the anticipated number is 107.4 and usually values which exceed analysts’ expectations are beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a change of -0.3% Friday and this weakened the Pound allowing the pair to move below short-term support.

Technical Outlook
After moving below 1.5420 the pair approached the level again and at the moment it shows rejection. This makes us believe that the next move will be a descent towards 1.5340 support; however an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index would decrease the chances of a break of this support. Also, a move above 1.5420 short-term resistance would invalidate this scenario and would take the pair into 1.5460.

Fundamental Outlook
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales which is a survey of about 125 companies and is focused towards their sales volume. A higher number indicates increased economic activity and is usually beneficial for the Pound. The forecast is 42, an increase from last month’s 39 but under normal circumstances the release has a mild impact unless the actual number shows a big difference compared to the forecast.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2015.02.23 :Forex News: Market indecision still present. Greece still in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro briefly strengthened when news came out that an accord was reached between Greek officials and European finance ministers, but the initial rally was quickly reversed and the ranging period didn’t come to an end.

Technical Outlook
Given the latest developments our view remains neutral on the pair as long as 1.1440 is still resistance and 1.1270 is still support. From a 4-hour perspective the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and both oscillators (RSI and Stochastic) lack clear direction so a technical prediction is difficult to be accurate. The Euro will be possibly affected today by more discussions between Greek and Eurogroup officials so we recommend increased caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The German IFO Business Climate will offer insights into the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current and future economic conditions. The scheduled time of release is 9:00 am GMT, the anticipated number is 107.4 and usually values which exceed analysts’ expectations are beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a change of -0.3% Friday and this weakened the Pound allowing the pair to move below short-term support.

Technical Outlook
After moving below 1.5420 the pair approached the level again and at the moment it shows rejection. This makes us believe that the next move will be a descent towards 1.5340 support; however an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index would decrease the chances of a break of this support. Also, a move above 1.5420 short-term resistance would invalidate this scenario and would take the pair into 1.5460.

Fundamental Outlook
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales which is a survey of about 125 companies and is focused towards their sales volume. A higher number indicates increased economic activity and is usually beneficial for the Pound. The forecast is 42, an increase from last month’s 39 but under normal circumstances the release has a mild impact unless the actual number shows a big difference compared to the forecast.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2015.02.25 :Forex News: The marathon of testimonies continues. Volatility expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony yesterday triggered mixed up and down movement as she mentioned that the Fed is expecting inflation to rise to 2% but a rate hike is unlikely to happen during the next two Fed meetings. The range was not broken.

Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1440 resistance and 1.1270 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the 2 oscillators moving almost flat on a four hour chart. If price approaches support again and fails to break it, we anticipate a move into 1.1440 resistance but given the sideways movement seen lately, our view remains mainly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The speech and the questions she will receive are likely to generate strong and even mixed market reaction so we recommend caution. At 4:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. All his public speeches can easily create volatility but price direction is usually determined by his attitude and answers.

GBP/USD

The British Inflation Report hearings went mostly unnoticed yesterday and the strongest movement was seen at the time of Yellen’s testimony.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5460 is still holding but so is the minor support at 1.5420. A move outside this 40 pips range is very likely to occur today and considering that price made several unsuccessful attempts to break resistance, we consider that the chances of a bullish break have decreased. If the pair can move below 1.5420, we expect a touch of the support at 1.5340.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will release today at 9:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals. This indicator offers insights into the British house market and usually higher numbers than the forecast 36.2K are beneficial for the Pound. Half an hour later BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a public speech at the launch of the One bunk Research Agenda but the impact on the currency market is likely to be mild.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2015.05.26 :Forex News: American inflation data and U.K. GDP – the day’s main market movers

EUR/USD

Forex News: The testimonies of Yellen and Draghi did not create the anticipated volatility and the pair had another slow, choppy day. Both support and resistance are still intact and the ranging period is still not over.

Technical Outlook
Although it’s mostly flat, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer a minimum of resistance as seen from yesterday’s price action. However, the pair is moving sideways and lately it isn’t even trying to break the resistance at 1.1440 or the support at 1.1270. Until a clean break of the mentioned levels occurs, the pair’s movement will remain choppy and unpredictable.

Fundamental Outlook
American inflation data will be today’s main event. The US Consumer Price Index, which is the primary gauge of inflation will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to change -0.6%, compared with the previous -0.4%. Fed Chair Yellen mentioned during a previous testimony that inflation is expected to grow towards 2.0%, but so far the numbers are still dropping; if today we see another dip, the US Dollar is likely to be negatively affected.

GBP/USD

The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals came out close to the anticipated value but the Pound continued to strengthen throughout the day and major resistance was touched.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.5540 was touched yesterday and price quickly reacted by moving lower; the Relative Strength Index was overbought and this contributed to the bounce. Today we expect price to remain between 1.5540 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of either of them will probably determine the next medium term direction. Another bounce at resistance would imply that lower prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released (forecast 0.5%) and can have a strong impact on the Pound since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge; however, this is the second version of the indicator and tends to have a lower impact than the Preliminary version.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2015.05.27 :Forex News: Traders’ attention shifts towards German inflation and American GDP as bears regain control

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook
The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels.

Technical Outlook
The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​