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2013.01.02: A new beginning​

EUR/USD

Yesterday the market stood still and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. It is a rare occasion, but not even a one pip move could be seen in any currency pair.

20130102-A-new-beginning-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

The stalemate seen yesterday will come to an end today when the market will pick up again and the volume will slowly get back to normal. A few days ago we mentioned the horizontal channel that confines the pair and which is still holding. The lower boundary of the channel is the support formed at 1.3170 and it rejected price numerous times proving to be a strong barrier for any down movement. The upper boundary is located at the 1.3290 level of resistance. At the moment our bias is neutral on the pair but we consider that a break of either boundary of the channel is indicative of an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

Although some banks are still closed, today there are some releases of economic indicators: for the Euro zone the most important are the Spanish Manufacturing PMI coming out at 08:15 am GMT and the Italian Manufacturing PMI released a half an hour later. Better than expected numbers usually strengthen the currency but the market conditions still cannot be considered normal and surprises can occur. Later, at 3:00 pm GMT the US release the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a high impact diffusion index based on the opinion of about 400 purchasing managers. The forecast is for 50.2 from a previous of 49.5. Higher values then 50.2 can strengthen the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

Just as expected, the pair had no movement yesterday, but the last trading day of 2012 brought a lot of bullish momentum.

20130102-A-new-beginning-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

There is a distinct possibility for the pair to continue its strong move up touching once again the resistance formed at 1.6300. Monday many resistance levels were broken: diagonal resistance created by the down trend line, dynamic resistance created by the 200 Simple Moving Average and horizontal resistance represented by the 1.6175 level. This makes future higher prices very probable. But like we mentioned, the market is still not entirely back to normal so we recommend a lot of caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The only data released by the UK today is the Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for 09:30 am GMT, with a small increase expected: 49.2 from a previous of 49.1. The index is based on about 600 surveyed purchasing managers and it usually has a hefty impact on the market. The US event mentioned earlier will also affect the GBP/USD pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market.


​
 
2013.01.03: Another day inside the channel?


EUR/USD

Almost immediately after the opening of the market, the EUR/USD shot up for about 100 pips and price touched the upper boundary of the channel that we talked about before rebounding hard and traveling the whole distance back towards the lower boundary of the channel.

20130103-Another-day-inside-the-channel-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Lately the horizontal channel seems to be the main technical aspect of the market and price has almost text book reactions when it touches either one of its boundaries. We mentioned this before but the upper boundary of the channel is represented by the resistance formed at 1.3290 and the lower boundary is formed by the support level at 1.3170. If the channel will still contain the pair and the current break of the lower boundary is a false one, then it is most likely that we will see today a rally into higher territory. Of course a real break is not out of the question and if that occurs, we expect an extended move down.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s fundamental side of the market will be influenced to some extent by the German and Spanish Unemployment Change numbers coming out early in the morning but they are not considered to be high impact economic indicators. Lower numbers are good for the Euro because an economy with less unemployed people is considered a thriving one.

The main fundamental events today come from the United States in the form of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (anticipated 134K from a previous of 118K), released at 1:15 pm GMT and the Unemployment Claims which will be released 15 minutes later (anticipated 356K form previous 350K). In the case of the first indicator, higher numbers than expected are good for the currency and for the second indicator, lower numbers are likely to strengthen the currency. The final event that we must keep an eye on comes late at 7:00 pm GMT and it’s the FOMC Meeting Minutes, containing a detailed explanation of the reasons that influenced the FOMC members’ vote on the US interest rate.

GBP/USD

What appeared to be a true break of the resistance formed at 1.6300 turned out to be just a false one, followed by a substantial move down, below the mentioned resistance.

20130103-Another-day-inside-the-channel-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Lately the momentum has been strongly bullish for the pair but the recent drop makes our technical view almost neutral. It appears that no clear direction can be established and we recommend caution when trading the GBP/USD, at least until further developments. If price continues down, the level of 1.6175 could provide some support, but sudden moves to the upside (towards 1.6300 again) are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important economic indicator released today for the British Pound is the Construction PMI (09:30 am GMT), with a slight increase being anticipated: 49.6 from a previous of 49.3. It is an index based on the opinions of about 170 Purchasing Managers and better than expected numbers can strengthen the GBP, driving the pair higher. All the US data mentioned earlier will impact our analyzed pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market.
 
2013.01.04: The big fall begins


EUR/USD

Yesterday we experienced a text book break of the lower boundary of the horizontal channel that contained the pair for the last period. After the break, price re-tested the support turned resistance and then continued lower, exhibiting clear seller control over the market.

20130104-The-big-fall-begins-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Our bias on the pair is bearish at the moment and we base this on the recent break of the support formed at 1.3170 and also the decisive break of the 1.3140 support. Both are now resistance once again, confirmed by the re-test seen after the break. The next important support level is located at 1.3020 and although we don’t expect it to be hit today, we consider that to be the next short term target for the EUR/USD pair. As always, we must be aware of surprise moves above 1.3170 which would be indicative of indecision in the market, not necessarily an uptrend.

20130104-The-big-fall-begins-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Fundamental Outlook

The attention today is focused on the United States as we expect the always important release of the Non – Farm Employment Change numbers at 1:30 pm GMT. Actual numbers higher than the expected ones are indicative of economic stability and even growth which usually translates into a strong currency for the country. Today’s expected number is 150K from a previous of 146K. At the same time, the US Unemployment Rate is released, but no change is expected: 7.7% from previous 7.7%. If the value will drop, that will be positively reflected in the currency. The final release of the day concerning the US Dollar is the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT) and a small decrease is expected: 54.2 from the previous of 54.7. Higher numbers than 54.2 can strengthen the US Dollar and drive the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair had a downward trajectory, just like its sister pair, EUR/USD. The support at 1.6175 crumbled under the pressure of the sellers and at the moment price is sitting on the support formed at 1.6140.

20130104-The-big-fall-begins-Picture-03-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

The bulls seem to have no answer at the moment and we expect lower prices for the pair. The level to watch is 1.6175 because it was not re-tested and another small move up to touch it is possible. In the event that price does not move up to touch the broken support turned resistance, the 200 Simple Moving Average could provide some support for the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

Our analyzed pair will be affected today by the UK Services PMI released at 09:30 am GMT. The value is expected to increase slightly (50.4 from a previous of 50.2) but the Pound will probably strengthen only if the value will be higher than 50.4. The important US events mentioned above will have a hefty impact on our pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market.
 
2013.01.07: The ingredients for a break of support are present


EUR/USD

The anticipated drop for the pair occurred and price touched the support formed at 1.3020, although it didn’t re-test the broken level of 1.3140 like we expected. A bounce into up was then experienced, resulting in a higher close of the day.

20130107-The-ingredients-for-a-break-of-support-are-present-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

The move up seen during Friday’s trading session does not change our bearish sentiment on the pair and we consider it a much needed retracement after such a big fall. Price dropped almost 300 pips in just two days so the sellers are in control of the market at the moment but probably profit taking at the 1.3020 support pushed price higher (the process of closing a sell trade implies buying). At the moment price shows a small rejection from the 50 period Simple Moving Average and Bearish Divergence is present so this could be a good place for the retracement to end and the down trend to resume. We are not dismissing any moves higher but we find them less probable.

Fundamental Outlook

Mondays are usually slow in terms of economic indicators releases and today the only events that could affect the pair come from the Euro zone in the form of the Sentix Investor Confidence and the Producer Price Index. Usually both these indicators have a very light impact on the market and sometimes can even go unnoticed by traders, but surprising numbers could generate some movement. No data concerning the US Dollar is scheduled for release today.

GBP/USD

Since the false break of the strong resistance established at 1.6300, the pair has been in a clear and strong downtrend, apparently breaking the support at 1.6040 during Friday’s trading session before retracing above it.

20130107-The-ingredients-for-a-break-of-support-are-present-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Although price at the moment sits above support, we consider that today another attempt at breaking it will occur. The fact that price could not break the 1.6040 level on the first attempt is not indicative of downtrend weakness, but rather a short term seller exhaustion and some profit taking, just like we mentioned on our EUR/USD technical outlook. The Hidden Bearish Divergence is present in the GBP/USD pair as well and we expect a down trend resumption during today’s trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable economic indicator released today for the British Pound is the Halifax House Price Index, coming out at 08:00 am GMT with an expected decrease from a previous of 1.0% to 0.2%. Actual numbers higher than 0.2% could strengthen the Pound and drive the pair higher, but this indicator is not known as a strong market mover so we don’t expect major moves to be generated by its release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market.
 
2013.01.08: The support levels still have strength


EUR/USD

During yesterday’s trading session, the pair had another clash with the support created at 1.3020 and so far it looks like we are not going to see price moving below this level. The European Sentix investor Confidence was announced at -7.0, much better than the expected -13.7 and although it is not a high impact indicator, it helped the Euro in its upward path.

20130108-The-support-levels-still-have-strength-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

We maintain our bearish bias on the pair and we consider that this move up lacks the power to break any strong resistance levels. A good place for the sellers to take back control of the market is the resistance created at 1.3170, seen on the four hour chart above. On the downside, the support at 1.3020 remains crucial and a possible break will probably generate more seller pressure and consequently, lower prices.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no high impact economic indicators are released for either the Euro or the US Dollar. The only scheduled releases worth mentioning are the Euro zone Retail Sales, coming out at 10:00 am GMT, with an increase expected (0.5% from a previous of -1.2%) and the Euro zone Unemployment Rate, coming out at the same time, with a very small increase anticipated: 11.8% from 11.7%. For the retail Sales, higher numbers are likely to strengthen the currency and the opposite applies for the Unemployment Rate.


GBP/USD

The two pairs have been highly correlated during the last period so the movement of the GBP/USD was quite similar yesterday to the one of the EUR/USD, making another attempt at breaking the support before retracing higher.

20130108-The-support-levels-still-have-strength-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

It seems like price is headed into resistance again and a good place to see if the move up really has some power is at the resistance zone of 1.6130 – 1.6140. If that zone is surpassed, the next hurdle will be 1.6175. On the down side, 1.6040 remains extremely important for future direction and a valid break would be indicative of down trend resumption.

Fundamental Outlook

The UK doesn’t release any economic indicators today that could affect the pair and neither do the United States. It appears that today’s movement will be driven by the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4 year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view on the market.
 
2013.01.28 : Slow Monday is here again

EUR/USD

As we mentioned numerous times before, usually Monday is a slow, ranging day, but last week finished with the bulls in control of the market and maybe the upwards momentum will be maintained throughout today’s trading session as well.

20130128-Slow-Monday-is-here-again-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair tried several times to break the support located at 1.5760 but it proved to be a task impossible to achieve and at the moment price is confined between support and resistance.

20130128-Slow-Monday-is-here-again-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.01.29 : A day influenced by Consumer Confidence economic indicators

EUR/USD

All the pair managed to do yesterday was to print a double top at 1.3477, accompanied by a lot of indecision candles. The United States posted mixed data, with the Core Durable Goods Orders coming out better than expected (actual 1.3%, forecast 0.8%) and the Pending Home Sales worse than expected (actual -4.3%, forecast 0.5%) and this contributed to the ranging movement experienced throughout the trading session.

20130129-A-day-influenced-by-Consumer-Confidence-economic-indicators-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The horizontal channel that we talked about yesterday was broken and price moved significantly lower in spite of the fact that Mondays are usually slow days.

20130129-A-day-influenced-by-Consumer-Confidence-economic-indicators-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.01.30 : All eyes on the FOMC Statement

EUR/USD

The double top formed at 1.3477 was broken during yesterday’s session and price continued its rally towards the resistance at 1.3500. The CB Consumer Confidence value came out worse than expected, weakening the US Dollar and contributing to the pair’s bullish movement.

20130130-All-eyes-on-the-FOMC-Statement-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair had a single direction throughout the day and finally, after a pretty long time, it moved similar to the EUR/USD so we might see a restored positive correlation between the two pairs.

20130130-All-eyes-on-the-FOMC-Statement-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.01.31 : Resistance is broken. What’s next?

EUR/USD

Yesterday all market moves were dictated by the bulls and the bears had almost no power and couldn’t do almost anything to stop the strong rally. The resistance at 1.3500 was clearly broken, followed by a re-test (seen on the 15 minute chart below) and a consequent move up. The US Federal Funds Rate remained unchanged and the FOMC Statement didn’t have the anticipated impact.

20130131-Resistance-is-broken.-What-s-next-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair had a bullish day as well, just like the EUR/USD and the correlation between the two pairs seems to be almost restored. The resistance at 1.5760 was broken early in the morning and price continued on a constant upward path, moving close to 1.5825.

20130131-Resistance-is-broken.-What-s-next-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.01 : Today’s market mover: US Non-Farm Employment Change

EUR/USD

After a retracement into lower territory, which also cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, the pair started to move higher again, breaking the previous peak but posing no threat to the resistance located at 1.3650. The US Unemployment Claims came out worse than expected, at 368K from an anticipated number of 362K, weakening the US Dollar and contributing to the pair’s bullish movement.

20130201-Today-s-market-mover-US-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair had a mixed trading session during its first half but the British Pound ultimately managed to finish the day higher, breaking the resistance at 1.5825 and closing above it.

20130201-Today-s-market-mover-US-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.04 : Trend consolidation ahead?

EUR/USD

Friday was a mixed day for the EUR/USD pair, mostly due to the US Non – Farm Employment Change numbers that created a lot of volatility and a strong whipsaw, resulting in a difficult trading environment.

20130204-Trend-consolidation-ahead-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook



GBP/USD

Unlike EUR/USD, the GBP/USD had a unidirectional trading session Friday and dropped violently for almost 200 pips, reigniting the downtrend

20130204-Trend-consolidation-ahead-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.05 : Trading close to support

EUR/USD

The pair dropped almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, breaking Friday’s low established at 1.3585 and even making a run for the strong support at 1.3500. Even the fact that the Spanish Unemployment numbers came out better than expected (132.1K from a predicted 150K) didn’t stop the bearish momentum so we might see a touch of 1.3500.

20130205-Trading-close-to-support-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The two pairs seem almost negatively correlated because yesterday while EUR/USD was dropping, GBP/USD was rising at a steady pace, even touching in the evening the resistance level of 1.5760.

20130205-Trading-close-to-support-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.07 : Main event of the day – the ECB Press Conference

EUR/USD

After a prolonged stay on the resistance at 1.3585, price failed to break it and chose the only other possible direction: down towards the support at 1.3500. But it looked like that support was also too strong for price to break and probably the lack of any economic indicators was the reason why the pair moved between the two levels.

20130207-Main-event-of-the-day-the-ECB-Press-Conference-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow and sideways movement, failing to break the resistance at 1.5675 or to make an attempt at touching the support at 1.5600 so just the first part of our scenario came true: the touch of resistance.

20130207-Main-event-of-the-day-the-ECB-Press-Conference-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.08 : The Euro sell-off

EUR/USD

As the President of the European Central bunk spoke, the euro dropped for about 200 hundred pips. His opinion that a strong Euro could be detrimental for further economic recovery triggered the sell off and traders all around the world joined the ride down.

20130208-The-Euro-sell-off-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The Official bunk rate remained unchanged as expected and no major surprises came from the UK; as a result the pair moved mostly sideways at the time of the GBP Rate announcement and was not influenced by Draghi’s comments or the Euro sell off. The move up seen yesterday at 10:00 am GMT was triggered by the speech delivered in front of the Treasury Select Committee by the BoE Governor Designate (starting July 2013) Mark Carney.

20130208-The-Euro-sell-off-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.11 : A bear controlled market

EUR/USD

Friday was a slow day for the pair compared to the strong movement experienced Thursday but that is often experienced after a high volatility trading session as most traders exit their positions or decrease their exposure.

20130211-A-bear-controlled-market-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair moved consistently higher throughout Friday’s trading session and retraced lower late in the evening after touching the resistance at 1.5825.

20130211-A-bear-controlled-market-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.12 : Deciding market direction

EUR/USD

Yesterday was a slow day in terms of distance traveled by price and the main move of the day occurred in the second part of the London trading session when the pair made an attempt to break the resistance at 1.3400. The surge up was generated by Jens Weidmann’s (Head of the Bundesbank) comments: “Latest indicators don’t signal a serious overvaluation of the Euro despite its recent appreciation”.

20130212-Deciding-market-direction-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The resistance created at 1.5825 proved to be too strong for the pair to break yesterday and price fell, touching the support located at 1.5675, resulting in a bear controlled trading session.

20130212-Deciding-market-direction-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.14 : Big challenges ahead

EUR/USD

Overall the pair had a mixed trading session, moving higher to touch the level of 1.3500 and then dropping once the resistance was hit. The US Retail Sales came out as expected, with a value of 0.1% from the previous of 0.5% but the Dollar strength can be attributed to some extent to the better than expected Core retail Sales: actual 0.2%, forecast 0.1% and previous 0.3%.

20130214-Big-challenges-ahead-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair plunged today on the back of BoE Governor Mervyn King’s remarks about the economy facing “big challenges”. He also expressed his concern about the fact that growth is likely to be weak and these comments drove the pair below the support located at 1.5630.

20130214-Big-challenges-ahead-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.15 : The G20 meetings have all the ingredients for a volatile day

EUR/USD

The Euro posted a negative day, weakening against the US Dollar, a fact which resulted in a drop below the support at 1.3400 and even a new low could be seen late yesterday in the afternoon. The US Unemployment Claims came out lower than expected, strengthening the greenback and contributing to some extent to the Dollar strength.

20130215-The-G20-meetings-have-all-the-ingredients-for-a-volatile-day-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The GBP/USD bears were stronger than the bulls yesterday so the pair slowly grinded its way towards 1.5500 and even managed to go below it.

20130215-The-G20-meetings-have-all-the-ingredients-for-a-volatile-day-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.18 : The lack of economic data could generate sideways movement

EUR/USD

Friday was characterized by a mixed trading session and the pair moved up and down for the entire period, finishing the day almost at the opening price, a fact which resulted in a daily Doji candle, signifying indecision in the market.

20130218-The-lack-of-economic-data-could-generate-sideways-movement-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD
Friday’s UK Retail Sales numbers came out a lot worse than forecast, at -0.6% (expected number was 0.5%) and this negative surprise generated Pound weakness and drove the pair significantly lower. However until the end of the session, the GBP managed to regain some of the lost territory.

20130218-The-lack-of-economic-data-could-generate-sideways-movement-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
2013.02.19 : Movement expected although another slow day in terms of economic data is ahead

EUR/USD

The lack of economic data combined with the fact that Mondays are usually slow days resulted in sideways price action and low volatility fro yesterday’s trading session. The US Banks were closed celebrating Presidents Day and even Mario Draghi’s speech couldn’t do much to speed things up.

20130219-Movement-expected-although-another-slow-day-in-terms-of-economic-data-is-ahead-Picture-01-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook


GBP/USD

The pair also had a trading session characterized by sideways movement and no important levels were decisively broken.

20130219-Movement-expected-although-another-slow-day-in-terms-of-economic-data-is-ahead-Picture-02-1024x657.png


Technical Outlook

Fundamental Outlook
 
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