Jual Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

[pasfx]

2014.17.12 : Forex News: Huge day for the US Dollar with the Fed meetings in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday both the German Manufacturing PMI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys showed values which exceeded analysts’ expectations and the single currency strengthened as a result, breaking resistance.

Technical Outlook


On an hourly chart the pair has become overbought as signaled by the Relative Strength Index and this suggests that price might move below the level of 1.2500, for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current test of recently broken resistance turns into a bounce higher, the first target is located at 1.2575.


Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day for the greenback: the first event is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1% while last month we saw a change of 0.0%. Usually an increase in inflation is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar and could take the pair lower.

In the evening we have a cluster of events which will most likely have a tremendous impact on the greenback: at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Economic Projections for the next 2 years and a Rate Statement which will contain insights into the reasons which determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which might be the biggest market mover of the day so extra caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI dropped to 1.0%, a fact which only weakened the Pound briefly before the bulls took over, taking the pair above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.5750 couldn’t be sustained and price soon moved below the level, showing rejection on a four hour chart. The pin bar created right on resistance suggests that price encountered a strong level which cannot be broken decisively at least for the moment, but we have a day filled with important news releases and we are likely to see strong moves which will decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of -19.8K while last month’s number was -20.4K. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related social help and a higher number suggests that the jobs market is contracting so the Pound will be negatively affected by a rise in jobless claims. At the same time, a breakdown of the MPC votes on the latest interest rate is released and this is a good opportunity for traders to see if the BOE is changing its stance on the interest rate. The US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.18.12 : Forex News: Dollar strengthens although Fed mentions patience about raising rates

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed meetings the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but “patience” about raising rates was mentioned and the greenback weakened briefly before taking back control and breaking support.

Technical Outlook

Although Fed’s stance wasn’t very hawkish, we consider the US Dollar is likely to continue to strengthen and to take the pair towards 1.2280. For that to happen we need to see 1.2360 support clearly broken and re-tested from below but keep in mind that on an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is oversold and this may trigger bullish retracements.


Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey comes out at 9:00 am GMT with an anticipated change to 105.6 from last month’s 104.7. The survey uses a sample of 7,000 businesses in an attempt to gauge optimism and this large sample is the reason why it’s so respected and why it usually has a strong impact on the Euro; if the analysts’ expectations will be surpassed we might see Euro strength.

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district about general business conditions. The expected number is 26.3 and values above forecast usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a bad day against the US Dollar but once the Fed events took place, the pair started to move in a hard to trade manner, with lots of whipsaws before finally deciding to move south.

Technical Outlook

The latest momentum belongs to the bears but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. This level proved very strong in the past so we might see bullish moves in its close vicinity, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching an oversold condition by moving below the 30 level. If 1.5590 is broken to the downside, the next support sits at 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom Retail Sales are released at 9.30 am GMT and a hefty drop is expected: 0.3% from the previous 0.8%. Such a drop would signify a contracting economy and possibly a weaker Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.19.12 : Forex News: Finishing the week on a bearish note

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken against the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session and the pair touched 1.2280 support. Both the German and American economic indicators posted readings close to analysts’ expectations and this dampened their impact.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved easily below 1.2360 and continued south to touch 1.2280 although the Relative Strength Index was trading close to oversold territory for the most part of the day. At the moment price is showing rejection off of 1.2280 support and the Relative Strength Index is starting to move upwards so we anticipate a day with bullish movement which may find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A clear break of support may bring in additional sellers.


Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news events for the Euro and the US Dollar, so price direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales posted a surprising 1.6% increase while analysts’ expectations were just 0.3%. This created Pound strength and a bullish day.

Technical Outlook

After moving below the support at 1.5590 and coming very close to 1.5540 support, the pair started to move north, back above 1.5590. The Relative Strength Index touched the 30 level, becoming oversold and this played a major role from a technical point of view. Today we expect mixed price action, without significant advances; if the Relative Strength Index will become overbought during the day, the sellers might take the pair lower, with 1.5590 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced. This is the amount of new debt held by the central and local governments and a higher number is viewed as detrimental for the Pound; the expected value is 14.8B while last month the debt was at 7.1B.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.22.12 :
Forex News: A lackluster fundamental scene brings choppy price action

EUR/USD

Friday the bears continued to take price lower, breaking 1.2280 support on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall we saw unidirectional price action, without whipsaws or sudden reversals.

Technical Outlook

We are entering Christmas Week and Mondays are known to be slow days, especially if no major news is released. The Relative Strength Index has been moving for an extended period close to the 30 level which suggests oversold and the current bear run seems a bit overextended so we expect bullish retracements. However, keep in mind the pair is in a clear downtrend from a short and long term perspective so further downside action is not out of the question.


Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are announced at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the day’s only notable release. An increase in home sales suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the greenback but the indicator has a medium impact on price action. Today’s forecast is 5.21M and higher values will probably trigger limited dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gained against the Pound as well but the pair’s descent wasn’t as substantial as seen in the EUR/USD pair and support was not broken.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. Today we anticipate another encounter with the mentioned level but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index might move below the 30 level, suggesting an oversold condition. Considering the pair is not in a strong trend from a short term perspective, we anticipate a bounce higher towards the 50 period EMA if 1.5590 is not clearly broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price action will be driven by technical factors and by the US house market data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.23 :Forex News: Irregular price action with both pairs under pressure

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved north yesterday on the back of a disappointing value of the US Existing Home Sales but also because the short term downtrend was overextended and in need of a retracement.

Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on a bullish path until 1.2280 is touched but we don’t believe this resistance will be broken today and instead we expect a bounce lower. If the bounce occurs, the first support is represented by the level of 1.2220. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also provide dynamic resistance but keep in mind that winter holidays usually generate irregular movement and technical analysis is not reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Durable Goods Orders are released today at 1:30 pm GMT with an expected change to 3.0% from last month’s 0.3%. Such an increase would suggest an expanding economy and would strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Price reversed yesterday after an initial climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw choppy price after for the rest of the day but immediate support was not breached.

Technical Outlook
The pair is under pressure and there’s a distinct possibility of a drop below 1.5590 support but we don’t expect price to travel for an extended distance in one direction. Volatility will probably alternate during the day and we expect price action to be choppy and irregular but a clear break of 1.5590 could take price in close vicinity of 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Current Account is announced today at 9:30 am GMT; this indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher value than the expected -21.1B is considered beneficial for the Pound. At the same time the British Bankers’ Association announces the Mortgage Approvals; the indicator offers insights into the housing market and a higher number than the forecast 37.3K suggests that more houses will be bought in the near future with the help of a mortgage, a fact which normally strengthens the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.30.12 : Forex News: US Consumer Confidence survey holds center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday, after bouncing higher off of 1.2165 support, the pair headed higher and touched short term resistance but price remained confined inside the horizontal channel for the entire day.

Technical Outlook


Under normal market conditions we would expect a move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2220 resistance and 1.2165 support but given the fact that volume is low and price action irregular, we consider that any breakouts will turn out to be false. In other words, after a move outside the channel, price is likely to return inside it, but keep in mind that technical analysis is less efficient during this period.The only notable event of the day is the release of the American Consumer Confidence survey scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The expected figure is 94.6, an increase from last month’s 88.7 and usually such a climb would strengthen the US Dollar because increased consumer confidence often means that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound came close to 1.5590 resistance yesterday before starting to drop. Currently the pair is trading below 1.5540 and the bears have won the short term battle.

Technical Outlook

Although price moved below the short term support at 1.5540, we might easily see a return above it, or at least a re-test if price is indeed headed south. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, the first support is located at 1.5485 but keep an eye out for any oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index as this could generate a move higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer dynamic resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no important economic or financial indicators released by the United Kingdom, so price action will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Consumer Confidence survey.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.31.12 : Forex News: Trading slows down for New Year’s Eve

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was rather slow, a fact determined by the approaching of the New Year’s Eve and by US consumer confidence data which posted a reading close to analysts’ expectations.

Technical Outlook


Today is the last day of the year and trading will be heavily influenced by this fact. We expect sudden drops and surges in volatility, with potentially sharp whipsaws on the back of low volume. The levels to watch are 1.2220 as resistance and 1.2125 as potential support. Price behavior around the current level of 1.2165 will most likely determine the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

German Banks will be closed today, celebrating the New Year’s Eve and the US Dollar will be somewhat affected by the release of the Unemployment Claims scheduled at 1.30 pm GMT and expected to rise to 287K from the previous 280K. A higher value is detrimental for the US Dollar under normal conditions.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mainly controlled by the bulls and the pair managed to climb back above 1.5540. Overall it was a normal trading session, without major developments.

Technical Outlook

Price is trading above 1.5540 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the short term bias is bullish. However, we believe that an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index will probably generate another bearish move, with 1.5540 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British fundamental scene lacks major releases and we expect irregular price movement, mostly due to the New Year’s Eve.

We hope your year was profitable and we look forward to trading together during 2015. Have a Happy New Year!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.02.01 : Forex News: Trading resumes. Low volume is still present

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the market was closed as the world celebrated the first day of the New Year so price didn’t show any movement. Today the market resumes normal movement but low volume is likely to still be present.

Technical Outlook


The pair is trading below 1.2125 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but the relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold condition. This makes us believe that today we will see bullish movement but keep in mind that volume is still not back to normal so we might see irregular price action.


Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released, with an expected value of 57.6, a small decrease from the previous 58.7. An even smaller value would probably weaken the US Dollar but the market might overlook this release considering it’s the first trading day of the New Year.


GBP/USD

No movement was seen yesterday and price remained confined between 1.5590 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

If price will have trouble breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we will probably see a move above the resistance at 1.5590 but a break of the mentioned EMA will most likely take the pair below 1.5540 support. Our bias is neutral and we consider that an extreme condition of the Relative Strength Index (above 70 or below 30) will generate a reversal move.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release the Manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast is 53.7, a small increase from last month’s 53.5 and higher values are usually beneficial for the Pound as this indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers and acts as a leading signal of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.05.01 : Forex News: Overextended prices call for a bullish pullback

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers on speculation that the Fed might raise interest rates during the first part of 2015. The entire day was controlled by the bears and the pair moved below support.

Technical Outlook

Although price action is bearish and 1.2040 support was broken, we expect the pair to move on a bullish path today. This is based on the fact that the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for a long period and price is overextended to the south. However, keep in mind that we are in a strong downtrend and the pair is under pressure, so it is likely to see further advances south after a bullish pullback.


Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released and expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. The indicator shows the change in the price of goods and services and acts as the main gauge of inflation; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened tremendously Friday as the British economy is showing signs of slowing down and the United States move closer to a potential interest rate hike.

Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen Friday is likely to generate a pullback to the upside. The extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index adds to this prediction but the strength of the bears is undeniable so we expect price to continue to move south after this retracement is complete. Potential resistance is located at 1.5420 while support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator gauges optimism among purchasing managers form the construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher numbers than the anticipated 59.2 will most likely strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.06.01 : Forex News: The market remains oversold. Retracements still expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The market opened with a big gap and the Euro took a big hit yesterday as concern about a potential Greek separation from the European Union escalated. Speculation about ECB purchasing bonds on a large scale added to the bearish momentum.

Technical Outlook

The sudden drop seen at market open yesterday was stopped by the support at 1.1875. We expect this level to be tested again today but bullish retracements are still a distinct possibility so we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. On a four hour chart both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11,6,6) are moving upwards, coming from oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is released today at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected change to 58.2 from the previous 59.3. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing industry and tries to gauge their optimism regarding business and economic conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and that’s why numbers that exceed expectations are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had a huge drop which took price below 1.5260 support; the weekly gap was closed by a quick bullish move but then price dropped again on the back of a worse than expected value of the British Construction PMI.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is struggling to move out of oversold territory but the Pound is weakening. If price doesn’t move above 1.5260 soon, we expect further downside movement but otherwise, the first target is represented by 1.5320 short term resistance. This level and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably create a confluence zone which will be hard to break if price touches it.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is announced; the forecast is 58.9, a small increase from last month’s 58.6. The indicator tries to measure optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.07.01 : Forex News: US Employment data and FOMC Meeting Minutes in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move south after a small retracement higher. Overall price action was controlled by the bears but immediate support couldn’t be broken.

Technical Outlook


Price came in close vicinity of 1.1875 support and showed rejection at this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic reached oversold territory and these facts make us believe that a move higher is in order. The first barrier is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this resistance can be broken, the next target is 1.2040. The pair is still in a downtrend so moves south cannot be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to change 0.0% while last month’s value was 0.3%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value is usually beneficial for the Euro because current inflation levels are considered too low by the ECB.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 1:15 pm GMT and shows the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. However, today’s version is released by a privately owned company, not by the US Government so the impact is usually lower. The expected number is 227K, an increase from last month’s 208K and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, offering details about the latest Fed Meeting.

GBP/USD

Resistance couldn’t be broken yesterday and the pair dropped on the back of Pound weakness generated by a worse than anticipated value of the Services PMI.

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take price above 1.5260 resistance and the rest of the day belonged to the bears. Price action created minor support around 1.5165 and a break of this level would probably take the pair into the next support, located at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index moving upwards, coming from below 30 and this favors bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.08.01 : Forex News: Multi-year lows reached as the Dollar continues its run

EUR/USD

Forex News; Yesterday we’ve seen that European inflation is still dropping and as a result the downtrend extended further. The US employment report posted better than anticipated numbers and this added to the bears’ strength.

Technical Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes created mixed reaction as the Fed mentioned that a rate hike is unlikely before April but overall price action was bearish for most of the day, moving below 1.1875. If a bullish retracement will occur, the mentioned level will probably turn into resistance and the chances of further bearish movement will be increased near this level. Immediate support sits at 1.1800.

Fundamental Outlook

European Retail Sales are released today at 10:00 am GMT with an expected change of 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Sales made at a retail level are crucial for an economy because consumer spending represents an important part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers will generate some Euro strength.

GBP/USD

The pair broke the important support at 1.5100 and continued to move lower for most of the day. The US Dollar had mixed behavior at the time of the Meeting Minutes release.

Technical Outlook

After moving below 1.5100, the pair retraced to test the recently broken level. Now price action around this potential resistance will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will open the door for further downside action, while a move above it will probably take the pair into the immediate resistance created by the hourly 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The next psychological and technical support sits at 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

The bunk of England will announce the interest rate today at 12:00 pm GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.50% so, unless a huge surprise happens, the event will not create a lot of volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.09.01 : Forex News: U.S. Non Farm Payrolls – ending the week with strong movement

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bears remained in control of the pair but some upside pressure was seen at the time of the European Retail Sales release which posted better than expected numbers.

Technical Outlook

Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic remain in the lower part of their respective windows, near oversold levels but the pair continues to slide lower. The minor support at 1.1800 was broken yesterday and now it is being tested from below; if price returns above it, the first resistance is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that today the technical side will be secondary to the fundamental one.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Non Farm Employment report which is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and it’s considered the most important jobs related data. If more jobs are created, the economy is thriving and consumer spending will probably increase in the near future so better numbers than the expected 241K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The bunk of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and the announcement didn’t create a lot of volatility. The pair made another push for 1.5000 support but failed to touch it.

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bearish, with the first resistance located at 1.5100 and support at 1.5000. Yesterday’s price action created minor support at 1.5035 and this will be the first target if 1.5100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average cannot be broken. The day’s price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day’s headline but apart from that an important role will be played by the release of the British Manufacturing Production scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from the previous -0.7%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Pound and would take the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.12.01 : Forex News: A quiet fundamental scene influences price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Non Farm Payrolls posted a better than expected number but still lower than last’s month value, a fact which created mixed movement Friday at the time of the release.

Technical Outlook

The first reaction to the US jobs report was a drop which was soon reversed and the pair started to move upwards. The immediate target is represented by 1.1875; this could be a place where the bears will take back control of the pair, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will be coming out of overbought territory. To the downside, the first potential support is located at 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, a fact which makes us believe that we will see slow, ranging movement.

GBP/USD

Overall Friday was a bullish day, with irregular movement present at the time of the American Non Farm Employment Change report. The pair remained above 1.5100 for the entire day.

Technical Outlook

Price moved above horizontal resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, completing a much needed bullish retracement. A downtrend is still in place and this increases the chances of bearish movement with the first target being located at 1.5100, followed by 1.5035. To the upside, the first resistance sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule economic releases today, so price action will be driven by the technical aspect but we don’t expect any substantial developments.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2015.01.13 :Forex News: Mixed price action ahead of the British Consumer Price Index

EUR/USD

Forex News: The fundamental scene was calm yesterday as no major news came out and price had mixed behavior, reversing a drop which occurred early in the day.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, without clear direction although the bears made an attempt to retake control. From a short term perspective the picture is mixed and the bias neutral, with the first levels of importance being 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1750 as support. The Stochastic entered oversold territory but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t confirm it so we will not allocate a lot of importance to this bullish signal.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is a lackluster fundamental day, but a noteworthy event is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the number of jobs openings, excluding the farming industry but this is a lagging indicator because it is released about 40 days after the month for which it is calculated has ended. Nonetheless, better numbers than today’s expected 4.91M can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Trading was mixed yesterday as the Pound weakened during the first part of the day but most of the losses were erased in the second part, after a bounce at 1.5100 support.

Technical Outlook
Short term price action created minor resistance at 1.5190 and we expect another encounter with this level considering the fact that yesterday the pair bounced immediately after a bounce at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is moving close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control doesn’t belong to either side but a clear downtrend is in place and a touch of 1.5190 might generate bearish action.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.7% while the previous was 1.0% and such a drop will most likely trigger Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2015.01.13 :Forex News: Mixed price action ahead of the British Consumer Price Index

EUR/USD

Forex News: The fundamental scene was calm yesterday as no major news came out and price had mixed behavior, reversing a drop which occurred early in the day.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, without clear direction although the bears made an attempt to retake control. From a short term perspective the picture is mixed and the bias neutral, with the first levels of importance being 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1750 as support. The Stochastic entered oversold territory but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t confirm it so we will not allocate a lot of importance to this bullish signal.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is a lackluster fundamental day, but a noteworthy event is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the number of jobs openings, excluding the farming industry but this is a lagging indicator because it is released about 40 days after the month for which it is calculated has ended. Nonetheless, better numbers than today’s expected 4.91M can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Trading was mixed yesterday as the Pound weakened during the first part of the day but most of the losses were erased in the second part, after a bounce at 1.5100 support.

Technical Outlook
Short term price action created minor resistance at 1.5190 and we expect another encounter with this level considering the fact that yesterday the pair bounced immediately after a bounce at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is moving close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control doesn’t belong to either side but a clear downtrend is in place and a touch of 1.5190 might generate bearish action.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.7% while the previous was 1.0% and such a drop will most likely trigger Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.01.14:Forex News: U.S. Retail Sales to influence the greenback as support still holds

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued its descent yesterday on the back of a weaker Euro and short term support was touched again. Concern that the ECB will add more stimulus contributed to the pair’s bearish movement.

Technical Outlook
Price bounced higher as soon as 1.1750 support was touched, showing that bears are having difficulties breaking this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are close to their respective oversold levels and are starting to move up; this, coupled with the bullish bounce seen at 1.1750 increases the chance of a move north which could find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Retail Sales are the day’s main event and is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 0.2% from the previous 0.7%, a fact which would be detrimental or the US Dollar because a major part of overall economic activity is represented by sales made at a retail level. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator which is released at the same time but excludes automobiles from calculation.

GBP/USD

The pair had another day characterized by a sharp reversal yesterday as we saw price drop about 100 pips and then climb the same distance. British inflation dropped more than expected and this was the main reason for the initial move south.

Technical Outlook
After failing to break 1.5190 resistance, price dropped below 1.5100 but the break soon proved to be false and a bullish bounce took price back up, close to 1.5190. This is a sign that price action is ruled by indecision and the next direction is not clear until a breakout occurs. Even this break of support or resistance happens today, a safer entry would be after a successful retest of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
bunk of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today before the Treasury Select Committee; the topic is the Financial Stability Report and the testimony could bring some irregular and possibly strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled time is 2:15 pm GMT.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2014.01.15 :Forex News: Short term resistance threatened. Bounce or Break?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Dollar took a hit yesterday as the American Retail Sales posted a much worse than expected change of -0.9%, indicating an economic slowdown. The bulls took control of the pair after a failed attempt to break 1.1750 support.

Technical Outlook
The downtrend remains intact as long as 1.1875 is resistance but it looks like the bullish pullback might continue until the mentioned level is touched. The failed break of 1.1750 shows that the downtrend was overextended and needed a “breather” in the form of a retracement higher. If the bulls cannot maintain price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average we will most likely see another attempt to break 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Producer Price Index is released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.3% while last month’s value was -0.2%. Higher numbers are usually beneficial for the greenback because the PPI has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be paid by the consumer eventually).

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering information about the state of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. Higher values than the expected 20.3 are considered bullish for the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 4:15 pm GMT, Bundesbank President Weidmann will deliver a speech in Berlin and this could be a volatility trigger if the he will talk about the Euro crisis.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well and as a result the pair moved above resistance. Mark Carney’s testimony was almost unnoticed by market participants.

Technical Outlook
After several attempts, the pair finally broke 1.5190 resistance and continued upwards until 1.5260 was touched. Today we expect a break of either one of the mentioned levels but notice that once 1.5260 was touched, price immediately bounced lower, a fact which shows that the bears still have a lot of underlying power and that we might see a move below 1.5190.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so price action will be influenced by the U.S. events and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.01.16 :Forex News: Swiss National bunk’s shocking decision, likely to influence price action further

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Swiss National bunk made a shocking decision yesterday to remove the cap which kept the EUR/CHF pair at a 1.20 rate. The effect on CHF pairs was tremendous, each moving several thousand pips but the Euro was affected as well and the EUR/USD pair dropped for more than 200 pips when the news came out.

Technical Outlook
The drop took the pair to a low of 1.1569 before the entire distance was traveled back up where the move originated. At the moment price is trading close to 1.1640 support. The environment is choppy and the market is dangerous but if the bears can maintain price below 1.1640, the next destination is the low we mentioned earlier. Further downside movement is possible as the effects of SNB’s decision will most likely be seen today as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. There’s no change expected from the previous -0.3% but higher values are considered beneficial for the US Dollar under normal circumstances. The last important event of the week is the release of the US Consumer Sentiment survey scheduled at 2:55 pm GMT. A small increase to 94.2 from the previous 93.6 is expected, a fact which would strengthen the greenback because consumer sentiment is correlated with consumer spending which is an important part of the economy.

GBP/USD

The SNB decision didn’t affect the GBP/USD as much but some impact was seen and the pair briefly dropped below support before heading higher, into resistance.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5260 was touched again yesterday but the pair didn’t break it and instead it headed lower. Now price is moving below 1.5190 and might be headed towards 1.5100 considering that resistance held and that a downtrend is still in place. The bias remains bearish as long as price remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major data releases scheduled for the day ahead so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side, unless surprises occur.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2015.01.19 :Forex News: The calm after the storm. Price action slows down

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to move lower as the market continued to be affected by Swiss National bunk’s surprise decision. Towards the end of the trading session however, some of the losses were recuperated.

Technical Outlook
The bias remains bearish as the pair is constantly printing new lows and the Euro lacks strength. A new encounter with 1.1640 is very likely but if price cannot get there today, at least the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably be touched. To the downside the low at 1.1460 reached Friday will offer the first support but we might see slow price action today on the back of a lackluster fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases and U.S. Banks will be closed, celebrating Martin Luther King Day. This will probably translate into low volume, especially during the American trading session.

GBP/USD

Overall Friday the bears were in control of the pair but we saw another failed attempt to break 1.5100 support. The pair is still trading in a range, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the bears made several attempts to close price below 1.5100 and all of them resulted in moves bounces higher. If price cannot move relatively soon below this level, it would be a sign of bear weakness and we will probably see a move higher, with 1.5260 being the main resistance. Minor resistance is located at 1.5190 but lately price moved several times above and below this level, making it less important. If 1.5100 is broken, the next support is located at 1.5035.

Fundamental Outlook
The entire week is pretty slow when it comes to British economic releases and today is no exception as no major indicators are released.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​