Jual Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

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FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN A TIGHT RANGE. BREAKOUTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair bounced between support and resistance yesterday, following a lower than expected Euro Zone Consumer Price Index value. The session was mostly dominated by the bulls but for the time being, speculation about the ECB decision has a high impact on the market.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3585 is still holding and the same is true for the resistance at 1.3650 as we are experiencing the almost perfect example of a ranging market. Even if support or resistance is broken today, an extended move in the direction of the break has a low probability of occurring as traders seem reticent to commit to either side of the market. The economic data released throughout the day will most likely have a hefty impact.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is the first day of the G7 Meetings which are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Depending on the matters discussed (which include the Russian – Ukrainian crisis), increased volatility is likely to be present. At 12:30 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing changes in employment numbers. The report is released by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The estimated figure is 217K while the previous number is 220K and usually, higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed a disappointing value yesterday and reversed an early rally which took price above 1.6750 resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price is hugging the level of 1.6750 and movement is slow, especially for a major pair. This price action holds no clues for future direction and the same applies to the Relative Strength Index which is moving sideways. Of immediate interest is the current level of 1.6750 and probably the first strong move away from it will dictate the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the services sector and based on the opinions of purchasing managers. The expected value is 58.3, a decrease from the previous 58.7 and higher values usually strengthen the Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE SHARED CURRENCY: ECB EXPECTED TO CUT THE INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The market lacked direction yesterday on the back of mixed economic data released by the United States and as a result neither 1.3650 nor 1.3585 was broken. Trading was difficult on the lower time frames and a lot of direction changes took place.

Technical Outlook


Indecision still governs the pair’s movement and market participants are holding back, waiting for today’s ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate. The major levels to watch are 1.3650 as resistance and 1.3560 as support, followed by 1.3480. Today’s direction will be highly affected by the event mentioned above and the technical side of the market will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the day’s main event is the ECB interest rate decision which is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is expected to drop from 0.25% to 0.10%, a fact which will most likely be perceived as bearish for the single currency and will generate a huge fall. During the Press Conference, Mario Draghi’s attitude will be closely watched by market participants and his answers to the journalists’ questions will most likely trigger additional movement.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Services PMI released yesterday showed a value very close to analysts’ forecast but the impact favored the bulls who managed to reverse a previous drop and to take the pair into 1.6750 once more.

Technical Outlook

If the pair is going to continue the ranging movement, we are likely to see another bearish move which will encounter support at 1.6700 and at 1.6680. Yesterday’s break above 1.6750 couldn’t be continued by bulls so neither side of the market is in clear control. Today’s fundamental scene will play a very important role and will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the bunk of England will announce their Interest Rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. A surprise change is not likely and this means that volatility will be increased just briefly. However, whipsaws can occur so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: ECB CUTS RATES. FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE US NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB decided yesterday to cut the interest rate to 0.15% and made a historical move by becoming the first central bunk to introduce a negative deposit rate of -0.10%. Following a sharp drop which touched 1.3500 zone, the Euro erased losses and traveled the entire distance back up.

Technical Outlook

The pair’s reaction to the ECB decision is surprising and some analysts speculate that Euro dropped too far, too fast and this fact triggered the consequent move up. However, this is just speculation and the fact remains that ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and dropped the interest rate to 0.15%; these factors are likely to weaken the Euro during the next period and the first lower target is 1.3560 followed by the lowest point reached yesterday: 1.3502.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered the most important report regarding job creation in the United States. The impact on the market is a huge one almost always, because employment levels are highly correlated with consumer spending which represents a major part of overall economic activity. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is forecast, from the previous 288K to 212K.

GBP/USD

bunk of England left the Interest Rate unchanged, as expected and overall we experienced a bullish day although price made an attempt to break 1.6750 to the downside but failed.

Technical Outlook

The bulls are starting to shift the balance of power in their favor and 1.6820 seems to be the first upside target. On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, a thing which increases the chance of bearish moves but does not nullify the possibility of a break of resistance. Support remains strong at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom has a slow day ahead in terms of economic data but the US employment report will have a hefty impact on the pair and we expect strong movement to be generated by its release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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Forex News: Irregular price action as economic releases lack almost completely

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a day characterized by another major whipsaw experienced at the time of the Non Farm Payrolls release. The number of new jobs was close to what analysts had forecast but the market had a mixed reaction.

Technical Outlook

The bullish impulse was reversed in close vicinity of the resistance located at 1.3680 and a big four hour pin bar was printed. This type of candle indicates rejection and a potential move lower which will encounter the first support at 1.3585. A move above 1.3680 will nullify the effect of the pin bar and will make 1.3730 the first target. Considering the latest movement, our current bias is neutral until further developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today French and German Banks are closed in observance of Whit Monday, a fact that will potentially generate irregular volatility and sluggish price action. On top of that, no US economic data is released so the chances of a slow Monday are increased.

GBP/USD

The Non Farm Payrolls release had a similar impact on the Cable and we saw a move up, countered immediately by the bears; at the moment price is sitting below resistance.

Technical Outlook

For the time being the level of 1.6820 is offering good resistance and rejects all bullish moves. The Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level and further bullish movement will probably take it into overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move south. If price doesn’t manage to break this level today, we are likely to see a shift of power towards the bears, with 1.6750 support being the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: BEARS ATTEMPTING TO DRAG BOTH PAIRS LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears stepped in with conviction yesterday and managed to take the pair into 1.3585 support. Major economic releases lacked but price had unidirectional movement for almost the entire day.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the mixed reaction caused by last week’s ECB decision is starting to wear off and the market is finally choosing a direction. Of immediate importance is the support at 1.3585 which is still not broken decisively and until that happens, the probability of upside moves remains high. The support at 1.3560 is still active but its importance is diminished as recent price action has been influenced more by 1.3585 and 1.3500. The latter is also the next target once the current level is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Industrial Production numbers are released today at 6:45 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.7% to 0.3%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output produced by the industrial sector during the analyzed month and higher numbers suggest economic expansion, thus strengthening the Euro. However, the impact is mild, especially if the real value is close to analysts’ forecast.

GBP/USD

The bulls made another attempt yesterday to break 1.6820 but failed and as a result the rest of the day was controlled by the bears.

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is trading almost sideways, in close vicinity to 1.6820 resistance and the bulls lack the determination needed to break this level. Considering this, our bias is slightly negative, anticipating a move south that will touch 1.6750 but a lot depends on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released and anticipated to decrease slightly from last month’s 0.5% to 0.4%. Since manufacturing is an important part of Great Britain’s economic activity, better numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product is announced; the last estimate was 1.0% and values that surpass this figure will strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN CONFIDENCE BUT BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears continued yesterday the momentum which started a day before and successfully broke the support located at 1.3585. The economic data released throughout the day was in line with analysts’ expectations but didn’t have a huge impact on price action.

Technical Outlook

The sellers are in control of the pair at the moment with both 1.3585 and 1.3560 being broken. Now the support at 1.3500 is the next lower target but on a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is dangerously close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold condition. We expect retracements north which can encounter resistance at the two levels mentioned earlier (broken support may turn into resistance) and once the retracement is complete, bearish price action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks important economic releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar so direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect of the market.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure which matched the forecast and the impact on the Pound wasn’t tremendous. However, mostly due to technical reasons, our predicted target of 1.6750 was reached yesterday.

Technical Outlook

The pair paused at 1.6750 support and we are now faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an extreme reading so it doesn’t help a lot in predicting if we will see a break or a bounce; the next levels of interest are 1.6700 to the downside and 1.6820 to the upside but the Pound’s direction will depend a lot on the unemployment data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be announced by the UK Office for National Statistics. The indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people who asked for social help during the previous month and usually higher numbers indicate that economic activity has decreased. Today’s forecast is -25.0K, almost unchanged from last month’s -25.1K and the Pound will be weakened if numbers above the forecast are shown.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES: THE DAY’S HEADLINE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded without clear direction and the bulls made a timid attempt to take price higher but this didn’t result in a break of resistance. No major economic data was released, contributing to the day’s slow movement.

Technical Outlook


The downtrend is intact but the Relative Strength Index is still moving very close to its 30 level, a fact which suggests an almost oversold condition of the market. This increases the chance of bullish moves which should be considered – if they do occur – just pullbacks in a downtrend, not reversals. Resistance still sits at 1.3560 followed by 1.3585, while the first lower target is represented by 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB Monthly Bulletin is released at 8:00 am GMT, revealing the bunk’s outlook concerning future economic conditions as well as information about the statistical data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made. The impact of the release varies, depending on the bunk’s stance.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets. Consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of all US economic activity and retail sales make up for about one third of this spending so the impact of the release is usually very high. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month’s 0.1% and under normal circumstances higher figures strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s unemployment numbers came out better than expected, generating Pound strength and driving the pair higher. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and for the time being support is holding.

Technical Outlook

The bounce-or-break scenario we mentioned before came to a clear conclusion yesterday as we saw a bounce higher off 1.6750 support. This rejection opens the door for a touch of 1.6820 resistance but this level proved very tough to break during last week and this week as well so once price touches it again, we expect a move south. The US Retail Sales data released today will play an important role in this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors and by the US Retail Sales.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: US DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading direction was mostly affected by the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales which weakened the greenback and allowed the pair to climb. The high-to-low range was small however and it seems like the pair cannot regain its normal volatility.

Technical Outlook

The climb seen yesterday took the Relative Strength Index away from oversold, opening the door for a resumption of bearish movement. A good place where price can start to move south is represented by the resistance at 1.3585, assuming the current level of 1.3560 is broken. A move above 1.3585 would tip the scales in favor of the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Producer Price Index is released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the change in prices charged by producers as compared to the previous month. The forecast is for a drop from 0.6% to 0.1%, a fact which would weaken the US Dollar.

The second important indicator of the day comes from the United States as well, in the form of the Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for release at 1:55 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 500 consumers, conducted by the University of Michigan and is often regarded as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The anticipated value is 83.2, an increase from the previous 81.9 and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The effect of the American Retail Sales was seen on this pair as well and for almost the entire trading session the bulls were in control of price action.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6820 was broken on the back of US Dollar weakness and it seems like the bulls are making a run for 1.6880 which is the next resistance and immediate upper target. If this level will be reached, the Relative Strength Index will most likely move above its 70 level, signaling an overbought condition and increasing the chance of bearish moves. During the day, 1.6820 may act as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release today any major economic indicators and price direction will depend mostly on the US data and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA – THE DAY’S ONLY NOTABLE RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday bearish movement resumed but price action was not very fast or volatile; however, the pair traveled below 1.3560 and the Euro continued to weaken.

Technical Outlook

Recent price action created minor support at 1.3520 and this will be the first barrier in front of further downside movement but the bearish momentum seems to slow down lately, a fact which signifies that the pair might re-visit 1.3560 resistance. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and it’s rather neutral but Eurozone’s CPI is release today and this can be a deciding factor for the day’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Inflation is still a concerning matter and lower values will most likely weaken the Euro, considering the fact that ECB’s inflation target is just below 2.0% and the current CPI is far from this target.

GBP/USD

bunk of England Governor Mark Carney commented that a rate hike may be discussed sooner than anticipated, a fact which triggered enormous Pound strength and took the pair into the year’s high.

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Technical Outlook

Price came within a few pips of a multi-year’s high located at 1.6996, putting the bulls in clear control of the pair. However, this control could be lost if 1.6996 (1.7000) is not broken during the next days and we must note the severe overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. This increases the chance of a retracement lower which may find support at 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price action will be mainly affected by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, POUND REACHES NEW HIGHS. ECONOMIC DATA DECIDES DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair didn’t travel a substantial distance during yesterday’s trading session and 1.3560 resistance was re-visited. Euro Zone’s CPI came out with the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a consolidation zone between1.3585 and 1.3520 and a breakout is imminent. The medium term trend is bearish so there’s a higher probability of a break of support than of resistance. If 1.3520 is broken, the next important level is located at 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 while to the upside price will encounter resistance at 1.3650 if 1.3585 will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. This indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current and future economic conditions. The forecast is an increase from 33.1 to 35.2, a fact which would strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%, a fact which would be detrimental for the US Dollar since the CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to climb, fueled by speculation about a potential rate hike performed by the BoE and 1.7000 was breached as a result.

Technical Outlook

Immediately after piercing the multi-year top created at 1.6996, the pair returned below it, a fact which shows that resistance is still holding and it will take more than one attempt to break it. Also, the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend towards the 70 level, coming from overbought territory, a fact which favors the bears and increases the chance of a touch of 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

Price direction will be influenced today by the release of United Kingdom’s CPI which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation is anticipated to drop from the previous 1.8% to 1.7% and if analysts’ expectations come true or even lower numbers are posted, the Pound is likely to lose some steam. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: FOMC RELEASES A CLUSTER OF MARKET-MOVING DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair failed to break free of the current consolidation pattern which governs price action despite the fact that German ZEW posted worse than expected values and the American CPI showed an increase.

Technical Outlook

Some US Dollar strength was seen yesterday at the time of the CPI release, making the pair bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.3585. The downtrend line seen in the picture above created a confluence zone but although all the ingredients for a break of support were present, the pair had a rather slow day. We expect the latest momentum to be continued today and the pair to break 1.3520 support, but a lot depends on the US events released in the second part of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate (not expected to change from the current <0.25%) is announced within the FOMC Statement and will be followed half an hour by a Press Conference which will contain commentary regarding the monetary policy and possibly future rate direction. The FOMC will also release at 6:00 pm GMT their Economic Projections regarding inflation and economic conditions for the next two years. This cluster of events is likely to generate a lot of strong movement and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index showed yesterday that inflation dropped more than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Pound. However, the losses incurred were almost immediately recovered, creating a major whipsaw on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

Although we saw yesterday some choppy price action, the resistance at 1.6996 is still holding and the Relative Strength Index is moving down, coming from overbought territory. These factors favor a move south, towards the potential support area located at 1.6920. A move above 1.7000 would invalidate the Double Top formation and would resume the uptrend, making 1.7040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The bunk of England will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the MPC members’ votes regarding the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to assess the stance of the BoE on the interest rate and to see if the MPC members have a difference of opinion. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the US events mentioned above.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The FOMC cluster of events generated huge volatility yesterday but unfortunately the price movement was almost untradeable at the time because of huge whipsaws and choppy up and down movement.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action holds absolutely no technical clues about future movement but the fact still remains that 1.3585 resistance couldn’t be broken decisively. This increases the chance of a bearish trend resumption but moves above the mentioned level will make 1.3680 the next potential target.

Fundamental Outlook


The Eurogroup Meetings start today and are attended by finance ministers of countries where Euro is the main currency; the President of the ECB will also participate and the discussions which will take place will have an impact on the Euro’s future direction. Later in the day, at 2:00 am GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the current level of business conditions. The expected figure is 14.3, a decrease from the previous 15.4 and usually lower numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair was also highly affected by the US events but price action was slightly more docile than EUR/USD. We had another encounter with 1.6996 and a bounce off 1.6920 in what was a hectic trading session.

Technical Outlook

We saw yesterday a clear rejection at 1.6920 which has now turned into support, a fact which makes 1.6996 the next destination for the pair. At the moment the bullish momentum is renewed by the immediate bounce at support and it seems like the Pound is headed for new highs. A break of support would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the CBI Industrial Order Expectations are announced and anticipated to rise from 0 to 3. The indicator is a survey that asks British manufacturers to rate the expected volume of orders during the next three months and usually expectations above 0 indicate optimism and strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES CALL FOR A BEARISH RETRACEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and almost the entire day was controlled by the bulls. The US Dollar weakened on Fed comments that interest rates will be kept at low levels for “considerable time”.

Technical Outlook

Despite the ECB’s decision to lower rates, the Euro is not weakening against the US Dollar and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3680 resistance now that 1.3585 is decisively broken. However, today we anticipate a move lower which will clear the overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. If this move occurs, 1.3585 will most likely turn into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major economic events for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the ECOFIN Meetings take place and can generate strong moves, depending on the matters discussed.

GBP/USD

The CBI Industrial Order Expectations announced yesterday posted a much better than anticipated value and the Pound continued its climb, breaching 1.7040 resistance.

Technical Outlook

If the bulls can sustain such a high price, the only level of interest to the upside is yesterday’s high and other than that we are in “uncharted” territory as far as resistance is concerned because the pair didn’t surpass 1.7040 since 2009. The Pound shows tremendous strength but retracements are to be expected considering the extended bull-run and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but a noteworthy indicator is the Public Sector Net Borrowing announced at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from 9.6 billion to 11.8 billion. The indicator measures the level of debt held by the government and a negative number indicates a surplus, while a positive number suggests deficit; however, lower than anticipated values will be beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: SIGNIFICANT FUNDAMENTAL DATA SETS THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its slow and ranging movement, trading slightly lower on the back of disappointing European Manufacturing data and a slightly better value of the US Existing Home Sales.

Technical Outlook

Support and resistance levels are still holding and the pair becomes less volatile as days go by; the first event that may generate strong movement is the break of the triangle pattern seen on the chart above. If the support located at 1.3585 is holding and rejects price higher, we are likely to also see a bullish break of the triangle but for the time being, the lower part of the triangle creates a confluence zone with 1.3585 horizontal support so the bears will have a tough time breaking it.

Fundamental Outlook

An important German survey is released today at 8:00 am GMT: the IFO Business Climate. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 110.3, an almost insignificant change from last month’s 110.4 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released; this survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic health at the same time, hence higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar. The forecast is an increase to 83.6 from 83.0.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened once positive economic data was released and as a result, the bears managed to nullify the gains obtained by the Pound previously during the day. Neither support nor resistance was broken and overall we had an uneventful day.

Technical Outlook

The pair is confined between 1.7063 resistance and 1.6996 support and until either one is broken, our bias is neutral. The Pound is on a clear uptrend but perhaps a stronger retracement lower is needed before we can see a break of 1.7063. Mark Carney’s public speech will most likely have a high impact on price direction and will possibly determine a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place in London. bunk of England Governor Mark Carney and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on inflation and economic outlook. Their comments will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and caution is recommended if trading at the time. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: EURO CONFINED IN A RANGE, POUND WEAKENED BY DOVISH COMMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another difficult to trade day as price first climbed and then dropped below the opening price on the back of better than expected US economic data. Currently the support at 1.3585 is being re-tested from above but the pair is in a ranging state.

Technical Outlook

Price action continues to trade sideways and all moves in one direction are quickly reversed. The current level of 1.3585 is important for short term movement and a break would open the door for additional sellers to enter the market and to take the pair into the more important support located at 1.3520. Minor resistance sits at 1.3640 – 1.3645 but the market is ranging and we are neutral until an important level is breached.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events represent today’s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are announced with a negative change anticipated, from the previous 0.6% to -0.1%. At the same time the Final version of the Gross Domestic is released and although its impact is lower than the Advance GDP, volatility can still be generated as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. The expected change is -1.7%while the previous was -1.0%. Lower numbers for either indicator can determine a weakening of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound weakened throughout the day against the US Dollar as Mark Carney showed a dovish attitude towards a potential rate hike and dampened any speculation that BOE will raise rates sooner than anticipated.

Technical Outlook

The potential support level at 1.6996 was easily broken yesterday on the back of Pound weakness generated by Carney’s comments and now it seems like the pair is headed for 1.6920 support. Before that happens, a re-test of 1.6996 is very probable. If this re-test is successful and price bounces lower, the chances of a reversal will increase and resistance will be located at 1.6996 once again. Throughout the day keep an eye for an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical side and by the US events mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: CARNEY’S SPEECH – DOVISH OR HAWKISH?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The American currency weakened yesterday against its counterparts as disappointing values were posted for both the Durable Goods Orders and the Gross Domestic Product. As a result the pair touched resistance at 1.3640 and the day was controlled by the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The pair continues to move extremely slowly compared to its normal behavior and although yesterday the bulls showed clear signs of dominance, future direction is uncertain. The current level of resistance may push price lower or it may bring in more buyers if a break is recorded, so today’s price action revolves around a “bounce or break” scenario. Next resistance is located at 1.3680 while support sits at the uptrend line, followed by 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook

Today lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar and the pair’s direction will be mostly affected by technical factors.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well and the pair made a push for 1.6996. However, the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break resistance and price remained below it.

Technical Outlook

At the moment we are seeing rejection at 1.6996 (1.7000) resistance and it seems like the bulls failed to renew the uptrend. This suggests that moves lower may follow and that 1.6920 support might be the next destination. A climb above 1.7000 will invalidate this scenario but Mark Carney’s speech will be the day’s headline and will probably have a strong impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT the bunk of England will release the Financial Stability Report which contains an assessment of potential risks to the current financial system and an in-depth analysis regarding financial stability in the UK. At the same time, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and will deliver a speech focused on the mentioned Report. His attitude will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and will be the day’s main market mover.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION NUMBERS MAY PUT AN END TO RANGING MOVEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday against its major counterparts and the Euro was no exception; after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance, price moved south to touch 1.3585 support but finished the day above it.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is still ranging, without choosing a direction and this gives greater importance to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and to the support located at 1.3585. We anticipate a bounce higher and a move back above the uptrend line but today’s important financial data will be the determining factor.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the German Consumer Price Index which is released at 12:00 pm GMT and anticipated to change from the previous -0.1% to 0.2%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro as German inflation accounts for a big part of European inflation.

GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech regarding the Financial Stability Report was perceived as hawkish by market participants and the pair climbed yesterday above 1.7000.

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Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair looks like it’s making an attempt to touch 1.7063 once again. The Pound was strengthened by more speculation about a rate hike which may come before the end of the year and the greenback is weakened by a worse than expected GDP so things look bullish and we anticipate a touch of the mentioned level. First support is located at 1.6996 (1.7000), followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. Although the Final version is the last and tends to have a milder impact on price action compared to the Advance version, we can still expect sharp moves at the time of the release, especially if the actual figure will differ from analysts’ prediction of 0.8%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls controlled most of Friday’s trading session on the back of a slightly better than anticipated value of the German Consumer Price Index. However, the pair is still trading in a range and resistance is not clearly broken.

Technical Outlook

Last week’s price action increases dramatically the chances of a breakout which will most likely occur this week, but the direction is hard to predict. Price just bounced between 1.3585 support and 1.3640 resistance and neither bulls nor bears made clear attempts to take control of direction. The encounter with resistance seen Friday may generate a bounce lower and a potential break of the uptrend line but if the pair continues upwards, it will encounter strong resistance at 1.3675.

Fundamental Outlook


At 9:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to increase from 0.5% to 0.6%. If this comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), the Euro will most likely strengthen against the US Dollar and we will have a bullish day.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced, showing the change in the number of houses which still await the closing transaction. The forecast is for an increase from 0.4% to 1.4%, a fact which would be considered beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product came out Friday with the anticipated value of 0.8%, a fact which generated mixed price action and overall a ranging day.

Technical Outlook

Resistance sits at 1.7063 but the bulls seem to lack the needed power to break it and to renew the uptrend. For today’s price action we expect more ranging movement, with price confined between the support at 1.6996 (1.7000) and the resistance just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major indicator releases today and the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by American data and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES CALL FOR BEARISH RETRACEMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite the fact that Euro Zone inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%, the pair had a bullish day on the back of US Dollar weakness. Strong resistance was broken and buyers made a decisive step for future price action.

Technical Outlook

Now that 1.3675 is broken, we expect it to turn into support and price to pull back slightly for a touch which may generate a bounce higher. Currently the Relative Strength Index is touching the 70 level which shows a slightly overbought market and indicates that a retracement lower might be in order, somewhat confirming our view. Next resistance is located at 1.3730 and will become the pair’s first target if 1.3675 turns into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will release the manufacturing PMI today at 2:00 pm GMT. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and it’s a measure of economic health and optimism; values above the expected 55.6 are considered beneficial for the US economy and hence for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakness seen versus the Euro made its presence known against the Pound as well and the pair climbed to a new multi-year high, reaching 1.7114.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s strong bullish momentum is likely to continue throughout today but for the time being, the top at 1.7114 will act as resistance and we anticipate a bearish pullback which will also clear the overbought condition shown by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. First potential support is located at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom will release today the Manufacturing PMI. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 56.7, a small decrease from 57.0. Lower than anticipated values usually weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY EMPLOYMENT DATA AND YELLEN’S SPEECH

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair resumed its sideways movement and volatility lacked almost completely; the US Manufacturing PMI posted a value close to forecast and this added to the lack of direction.

Technical Outlook

Price came close to the recently broken level of 1.3675 but couldn’t break it or bounce off of it and instead the pair just stalled there. For today we still anticipate a continuation of the recent bullish move which may generate a touch of 1.3730, but the Relative Strength Index is still close to the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition and might hinder further advances. Support sits at 1.3675 followed by 1.3640.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important US events will shape today’s direction: at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing, a privately owned US company will release the Non Farm Employment Change. This report must not be mistaken for the Government-issued indicator which will be released tomorrow but its importance is still high because it offers an early look into the US employment situation. Better numbers than the anticipated 206K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington, DC at the International Monetary Fund. As always, her speeches can be a reason for increased volatility and sharp moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s main market mover was the British Manufacturing PMI which showed an unexpected increase and boosted demand for the Pound as investors perceived it as a sign that interest rates might rise sooner than expected.

Technical Outlook

The Pound is constantly breaking multi-year highs and the bulls are in total control of the pair. However, this doesn’t nullify the possibility of bearish retracements, especially considering the overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index on a four-hour and on a Daily chart. If retracements occur, a good level where bullish movement may resume is 1.7095.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Construction PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease from last month’s 60.0 to 59.7. Construction is an important part of the United Kingdom’s economy and better than anticipated numbers can strengthen the currency but the impact is usually lower than the one of the Manufacturing PMI.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan