Jual Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

Technical Outlook

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi’s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday’s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn’t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it’s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.

GBP/USD

The bunk of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

Technical Outlook

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi’s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday’s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn’t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it’s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.

GBP/USD

The bunk of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

Technical Outlook

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi’s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday’s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn’t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it’s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.

GBP/USD

The bunk of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SLUGGISH PRICE ACTION AS THE MARKET CALMS DOWN

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bearish impulse created Mario Draghi’s comments about a possible rate cut in June continued throughout Friday’s trading session and the pair moved substantially lower, breaking two important support levels.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3830 and the one at 1.3790 were broken decisively Friday, scoring an important victory for the bears. These levels are likely to turn into resistance now and the next lower target is 1.3700, but the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory on a four hour chart and this makes us believe that we will witness a consolidation period. Price will most likely stall or even retrace slightly higher today, before an attempt at breaking 1.3700 will be made.

Fundamental Outlook


The only notable indicator is the US Federal Budget Balance which is announced at 6:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 112.6B, compared to last month’s -36.9B and such an increase would be beneficial for the US Dollar so we would most likely see lower prices.

GBP/USD

Manufacturing Production in the UK came out better than anticipated, but lower than the previous value so a slowdown can be seen and this, coupled with a stronger US Dollar, triggered a sharp fall.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s strong drop found good support in close vicinity of 1.6820, but we consider that a touch of this level is going to happen today. However, a break is less likely, mostly because no major economic indicators are released today and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is signaling an oversold condition. Potential resistance is located at 1.6880 but keep in mind that bears are in control of short term movement and a touch of this level will probably result in another move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major indicators today but the US Dollar and consequently the pair will be affected by the US Budget Balance release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES BRING BACK VOLATILITY


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair’s movement slowed significantly yesterday and price traded in a narrow range of less than 30 pips. A lot of this was due to the lack of economic data, combined with the fact that usually after strong movement, the market slows down for a while.

Technical Outlook

We expect action to pick up today and the market to resume the downwards movement seen last week, aiming for 1.3700 support. However, the Relative Strength Index continues to stay below the 30 level so the market is still oversold, increasing the chances of a move up which will most likely find resistance at 1.3790; the next resistance is located at 1.3830 but a touch of this level is not probable today.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the day is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to decrease from the previous 43.2 to 41.3. Since this is a gauge of optimism among German investors and analysts, better than estimated numbers can push the Euro higher. A more important indicator is released at 12:30 pm GMT: the US Retail Sales. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared to last month’s 1.2% and usually higher values strengthen the greenback because sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire economic activity.

GBP/USD

This pair was slightly more active during yesterday’s trading session but overall we had ranging price action, characterized by an attempt of the bulls to take price above 1.6880.

Technical Outlook

The failed attempt to break the resistance located at 1.6880 took the Relative Strength Index out of oversold territory, showing that bears still have underlying strength and that a new move south is in order. The target for this move is most likely 1.6820 and from a strictly technical point of view, it can be reached today but the US Retail Sales can prove to be a deciding factor.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule economic data releases today so all eyes will be on the United States for the Retail Sales release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: POUND AFFECTED BY A CLUSTER OF EVENTS; EURO LIKELY TO RETRACE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s main market mover was the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which posted a very disappointing value of 33.1 while the anticipated one was 41.3. This huge gap between estimated and actual figure weakened the Euro substantially and took the pair into major support.

Technical Outlook

Price fell without first touching the resistance at 1.3790, a fact which indicates clear bear strength and signals a potential reversal of the long term bullish trend. However, the Relative Strength Index spent a considerable amount of time below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and gives a heads-up for a move higher. This oversold condition, combined with the fact that price reached an important support level makes us believe that today the pair will either retrace higher or move in a ranging fashion.

Fundamental Outlook

The headline today is the release of the US Producer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to decrease from the previous 0.5% to 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and it often signals fluctuations in inflation because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. For today’s release, a figure that surpasses estimates is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The bears dominated yesterday’s trading session and the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales didn’t do much to help the bulls. The support at 1.6820 was missed by a few pips and overall the pair had a normal trading day, without sharp reversals.

Technical Outlook

The pair’s direction will be heavily affected today by the fundamental aspect but from a strictly technical point of view, price is likely to penetrate the area between 1.6820 and 1.6750. The momentum still belongs to the bears and attempts to break resistance are quickly reversed; a break above 1.6880 would tip the balance in favor of the bulls but for the time being, there are no clear signs of buying pressure.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people; the expected figure is -30.7K a small decrease from the previous month’s -30.4K and since the indicator is a gauge of unemployment, lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound. At the same time, UK’s Unemployment Rate is announced, with a small decrease expected, from 6.9% to 6.8% (again, lower numbers strengthen the Pound).

An hour later, at 9:30 am GMT the bunk of England will publish the Inflation Report, containing inflation projections and an economic outlook for the next 2 years. At the same time Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference during which he will discuss the Report. This entire cluster of events can trigger huge volatility and sharp moves so caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES STEAL THE HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN


EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected, the pair had a calm and mostly sideways trading session yesterday. The bulls didn’t manage to take price significantly higher but at least they prevented the bears form making further advances.

Technical Outlook

Although price retraced slightly yesterday, the move wasn’t enough to clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which makes further drops more difficult. Adding to this, bullish divergence is also present (price made a lower low while the RSI only printed a double bottom) so from a strictly technical perspective, moves north are in order. If these moves occur, they must be seen as retracements in a short term downtrend, not necessarily reversals.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants eagerly await the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is Euro Zone’s main inflation gauge and the ECB is closely watching it before deciding if monetary stimulus measures will be adopted at their June meeting. The risk of deflation is present and a lower value of the CPI than the estimated 0.7% can weaken the Euro; the opposite applies for a higher value. United States’ CPI will be announced today as well, but its importance is lower than the one of the European CPI; the release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 0.3%.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is perceived as a high impact indicator which shows the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding economic and business conditions. The indicator is released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected figure of 13.9, a decrease from the previous 16.6; higher values are considered bullish for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The bunk of England Inflation Report was less hawkish than expected and no hints about a near-future rate hike were given. The market perceived this as a dovish attitude of the BoE and as a result the pair had another bearish trading session.

Technical Outlook

The pair pierced through the support located at 1.6820 and even touched 1.6750. We expect bullish moves today even if the control belongs to the bears and we base this opinion on the fact that the current move is reaching an overextended phase and the Relative Strength Index is constantly touching the 30 level. Resistance sits at 1.6820 and if a touch of this level occurs, price is likely to bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day in terms of economic data releases so price action will be mostly affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A CALM END TO A WILD WEEK?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The data released yesterday was mixed but more hints about a rate cut emerged as ECB officials signaled that the bunk is preparing a package of monetary policy measures. The Euro dropped but later in the day it managed to erase all Dollar gains, creating a massive reversal.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls have renewed their interest for the pair, a fact which is normal considering the oversold condition of the market and the bullish divergence present on the four-hour chart. Once this retracement is complete, we expect price to resume downwards movement for another break of 1.3700 en route to 1.3640. The first level of interest that could provide resistance is located at 1.3745.

Fundamental Outlook

The greenback will be affected today by the release of the US Building Permits, an indicator which shows changes in the annualized number of permits issued during the preceding month. An increase suggests a thriving economy, considering that houses are usually built in times of good economic conditions. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the estimated number is 1.01M compared to the previous 1.0M.


The last important indicator of the week comes out at 1:55 pm GMT: the US Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and has the ability to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers than the anticipated 84.7 are posted.

GBP/USD

The bears unsuccessfully attempted yesterday to break the support at 1.6750 but the bulls managed to finish the day higher, on the back of US Dollar weakness.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s bullish move can be seen as a retracement in a short term downtrend but from a Daily chart perspective, we are still in an uptrend and the pair just touched the uptrend line drawn from November last year. In other words, the picture is not clear and different time frame charts say different things. What is certain is that support is still holding at the moment and the confluence zone created by the uptrend line and 1.6750 will be tough to break but if price moves below it, the bears will score a major victory.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead as no major indicators are released by the United Kingdom; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: WEIDMANN’S SPEECH – THE SINGLE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price moved in a small range and neither bulls nor bears managed to make a clear statement of power. US economic data was mixed but it didn’t have a major impact on the pair.

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.3700 but if the bulls will manage to reverse the short term downtrend seen last week, the minor resistance that was created at 1.3730 will be the first barrier they need to break. To the south, first support sits at 1.3640 but the chances for it to be broken today are slim, considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days, especially if no major economic data is released.

Fundamental Outlook

The only event which can trigger strong movement today is the speech of German Bundesbank President Weidmann which is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. He will speak at a Symposium organized in Frankfurt and if he reveals hints about the ECB’s next move, the market will react strongly as he is believed to be one of the most influential members of the ECB Governing Council.

GBP/USD

The last day of the previous week was almost entirely controlled by the bulls and price traveled to touch the resistance at 1.6820. A disappointing figure for the US Consumer Sentiment played an important role in Friday’s climb.

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Technical Outlook

The pair finished the week right on 1.6820 level but for the moment we cannot know for sure if this was due to price resistance or simply because the trading week ended and the market closed. This question will probably be answered today and we will see if 1.6820 has turned into resistance or if price will continue towards 1.6880. To the downside, 1.6750 remains strong support for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

We expect slow price action today since there are no important American or British economic releases, but maybe Weidmann’s speech will have a ripple effect which will influence this pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: INFLATION-RELATED INDICATORS INCREASE VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Trading was rather slow yesterday, with the Euro climbing steadily throughout the day. Bundesbank President Weidmann said that ECB will be closely watching Forex rates before making a policy decision but the comment was mostly overlooked by market participants.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3730 wasn’t broken decisively yesterday but some bullish pressure can be seen. We consider this latest move up just a retracement and we expect today another attempt at breaking 1.3700. If price moves below this level, the immediate target is located at 1.3650 but a bounce higher would signify that bears are starting to run out of steam and that more bullish action will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Producer Price Index is released today at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.3% to 0.0. Changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services will be have an influence on the price paid by consumers for those goods and services; in other words, the PPI affects inflation and this makes it an important indicator which can strengthen the Euro if higher values are posted.

GBP/USD

Some Pound strength was seen yesterday and the pair moved above 1.6820 as a result, but the bulls didn’t make any substantial advances and we had a small high-to-low range.

Technical Outlook

If the pair continues upwards, the first resistance is located at 1.6880 but by the time price gets there, the Relative Strength Index may reach an overbought condition, thus increasing the chances of a bounce lower. To the south, major support is located at 1.6750 but the fundamental aspect will play a major role today and will most likely decide direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, United Kingdom will release the CPI which is the main gauge of inflation and plays a big role in bunk of England’s decision regarding interest rates. A higher value is considered bullish for the Pound while a lower one may drag the currency lower; today’s estimated value is 1.7%, an increase from the previous 1.6%.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FED AND BOE RELEASE MEETING MINUTES – STRONGER MOVES EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Producer Price Index showed a decrease and this largely contributed to bearish movement seen throughout the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However, the Euro recovered some of the early losses during the second part of the day.

Technical Outlook

The market is governed by indecision at the moment but bearish pressure is present to some extent, although movement lacks strength and direction is changed many times. Yesterday’s price action was slow and this makes an accurate technical prediction more difficult but we notice the fact that the resistance located at 1.3730 is still holding and the day’s main move was bearish. Until a clean break of 1.3700 support or 1.3730 minor resistance occurs, the picture remains uncertain.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC will release today at 6:00 pm GMT the Meeting Minutes, containing details about their latest meeting and insights into the reasons which influenced their monetary policy decision. Any hints about future interest rates or monetary easing will trigger sharp movement and hopefully will take the pair out of the state of indecision seen lately.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound was heavily affected by the Consumer Price Index which showed an increase from the previous 1.6% to 1.8%, surpassing the estimated 1.7% and generating a bullish trading session.

Technical Outlook

Overall the pair had movement which was difficult to trade, mostly because after the first surge generated by the CPI release, price dropped sharply, wiping out some of the Pound’s gains and probably a lot of stop loss orders as well. Nevertheless, price is still trading above 1.6820 and the next target is 1.6880 where a bounce-or-break scenario will unfold. Support sits at 1.6820, followed by 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound will be the release of United Kingdom’s Retail Sales scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The estimated value is 0.4% compared with the previous 0.1% and better figures strengthen the Pound as they suggest increased economic activity. At the same time the BoE Meeting Minutes come out, containing a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes on the interest rate. Depending on how members voted, traders can assess the bunk’s stance regarding the interest rate and can speculate on future rate values.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD – VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally decided to move with some determination and as a result, the level of 1.3700 was broken decisively. Volatility increased and hopefully it will remain this way.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3700 and the fact that price touched 1.3650 make the picture bearish once again, but for the short term downtrend to be renewed, we need to see a clear break of 1.3650 support. If this occurs, the next hurdle is located at 1.3560, followed by 1.3480. Medium term movement seems to favor bears more and more but we expect bullish price action once the Relative Strength Index moves below its 30 level.

Fundamental Outlook

The French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released today at 7:00 am GMT and 7:30 am GMT respectively. Both are surveys which ask purchasing managers to rate the current and future business conditions and are leading indicators or economic health; better than estimated values usually strengthen the Euro. The consensus for the French PMI is 51.1 while the German PMI has an anticipated value of 54.0.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, offering insights into the American house market. Although this is regarded as a high impact indicator, its effect can be mild at times, mostly depending on the difference between the expected value and the actual one. Today an increase is forecast, from the previous 4.59M to 4.71M.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially on renewed speculation that a rate increase might occur in the near future and on the back of a much better than expected value of the Retail Sales (forecast 0.4%, actual 1.3%).

Technical Outlook

After the initial bullish impulse generated by the things mentioned above, the pair’s momentum started to fade away and price retraced lower. Immediately after the resistance at 1.6920 was touched, price reacted and this increases the importance of this level for short term movement; if 1.6920 resistance is broken, the door for a touch of 1.6996 is open and the uptrend may be renewed. For the time being, the most important support is located at 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is announced today at 8:30 am GMT but is expected to remain unchanged from the current 0.8%; if this is the case, the release will have a mild impact but any changes can generate strong moves because the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE GERMAN BUSINESS CLIMATE, THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both the French and German Manufacturing PMIs showed disappointing values yesterday, lower than forecast and previous figures, generating a bearish day. The US data didn’t surprise in any way and was mostly overlooked by the market.

Technical Outlook

Although the day was almost entirely controlled by the bears, the support located at 1.3650 was not clearly broken and this means there is still chance of a bullish rally today. A break of the mentioned level would solidify the bears’ dominance and would probably take the pair into 1.3560 support but such a move might be too much for a single day. To the north, resistance is located at 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook


The first event of the day is the release of the German Ifo Business climate, a survey with a large sample (7,000 businesses), focused on expectations for the next six months and also on the current business conditions. The time of the release is 8:00 am GMT and the expected figure is 111.0, a small decrease from the previous 111.2. The impact varies depending on the numbers posted but usually a higher value strengthens the Euro. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales numbers are released and expected to increase substantially from last month’s 384K to 426K. More homes sold suggest a thriving economy and thus, can have a positive effect on the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and remained unchanged at 0.8%, a fact which was perceived as bearish for the Pound, taking the pair below 1.6880.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price touched for the second time the resistance located at 1.6920 and immediately bounced lower, below 1.6880. This shows that bears have underlying power and that 1.6820 might be the pair’s next target. However, we must keep in mind the fact that form a long term perspective, the pair is in an uptrend, so a touch of the mentioned support will most likely trigger a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases today so price action will be mainly affected by the US events and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: bunk HOLIDAYS INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SLOW PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: A weaker than forecast value of the German Ifo Business Climate combined with an increased number of New Home Sales in the United States created bearish price action Friday and took the pair below 1.3650 support.

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Technical Outlook

The European Parliamentary Elections which took place Sunday are likely to influence today’s price behavior but the direction or the extent of their impact is hard to determine. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart is showing a mildly oversold condition and this increases the chance of moves north. If this is the case, 1.3650 will most likely act as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook

Today US Banks will be closed due to Memorial Day and no economic data will be released. As for the Euro, the only event that can affect it is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi. He is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am GMT in Portugal, at the European Central bunk Forum. Strong moves will be generated, especially if the President will speak about ECB’s next step regarding monetary policy.

GBP/USD

Both Thursday and Friday were bearish days and we saw the pair drop all the way from 1.6920 to 1.6820. Price traveled without whipsaws until it finally reached support and volatility subsided due to the end of the trading week.

Technical Outlook

Price showed some rejection off 1.6820 support but it looks like the bulls’ strength starts to fade away from a medium term perspective (four hour chart). The Relative Strength Index is not indicating an oversold condition so a break of 1.6820 is possible today but on the other hand, we might experience a slow day due to lack of economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in the United Kingdom will be closed today, celebrating Spring bunk Holiday; no economic releases are scheduled for the Pound. Volatility might be thin and irregular movement is a distinct possibility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: ACTION PICKS UP, BACKED BY ECONOMIC RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Volatility for the EUR/USD pair is dropping to almost record lows, making price action slow and choppy. Yesterday US Banks were closed, contributing to the type of movement we mentioned above, but overall we had a bullish day.

Technical Outlook

The pair rallied yesterday to touch 1.3650 but we consider this to be just a retracement generated by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (Daily and four hour chart) and we believe that price cannot continue much higher. The first hurdle for the bears to overcome is the minor support created at 1.3615 while 1.3650 still holds as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States will announce their Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is a major drop from the previous 2.9% to -0.5%. Such a drop, or any lower value, would indicate a slowdown of manufacturing activity and would weaken the US Dollar. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence will be released, with an increase anticipated: 83.2 from the previous 82.3. Confidence among consumers is often an indication of future consumer spending and better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair also had a very narrow range yesterday, mostly due to the fact that both U.S. and British Banks were closed. Bulls controlled the day but no special developments took place.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s slow price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues regarding future direction but for the time being, the support at 1.6820 is still holding and the rejection seen here can easily take price into 1.6880 resistance once again. A break of 1.6820 would open the door for a touch of 1.6750 and maybe a full scale reversal of the long term uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bankers’ Association will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals (previous 45.9K; estimated 45.2K). This is a leading indicator of house market demand because normally a house is purchased with the help of a mortgage; also, houses are usually purchased in times of economic expansion so higher numbers for today’s release are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN STRENGTH. SUPPORT LEVELS THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair experienced a bearish day as the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated value of the US Durable Goods Orders and as a result the minor support we mentioned yesterday (1.3615) was touched again.

Technical Outlook

Although we saw yesterday a stronger move compared with the previous days, the pair is still moving slower than normal and it looks like traders are waiting for a determining factor which will trigger sharper drops or rallies. Of immediate interest remains 1.3615, followed by 1.3560 (visible on a Daily chart) as support while resistance is located at 1.3650.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a rather slow day ahead, with the only noteworthy economic release being the German Unemployment Change scheduled at 7:55 am GMT and expected to increase from -25K to -14K. Increasing unemployment levels suggest that economy might be contracting and usually this affects negatively the Euro, driving the pair lower.

GBP/USD

British Mortgage Approval numbers fell during the previous month as yesterday’s indicator showed and this fact, combined with an increased number of US Durable Goods Orders, generated a sharp drop for the pair.

Technical Outlook

Following a perfect bounce off 1.6880 resistance, price dropped through 1.6820 support and we consider the next target to be 1.6750. Keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching its 30 level which suggests an oversold condition so we believe 1.6750 will not be broken in the first attempt, especially if at the time of the touch, the mentioned oversold condition is present.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

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FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE UNITED STATES AS EUROPEAN BANKS TAKE A BREAK

EUR/USD

Forex News: German Unemployment rose during the previous month as shown by yesterday’s release, helping the bears to break 1.3615 minor support. Almost the entire day was controlled by sellers and it seems like the bulls’ power is waning almost completely.

Technical Outlook

The Euro is weakened lately by disappointing economic data and by speculation that ECB might cut rates on their next meeting; all this tilts the balance in favor of the bears and we consider that further downside movement is in order. The first support and target for the pair is 1.3560 and we consider it can be touched today but a lot depends on the US data that is due for release.

Fundamental Outlook

German and French banks are closed today due to Ascension Day so European economic releases will lack completely. However, an important US event takes place: the release of the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which usually has a hefty impact on the US Dollar and can strengthen it if better values are posted. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is -0.6%, a decrease from the previous 0.1%. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced and expected to decrease from 3.4% to 1.1%; if this decrease comes true, the US Dollar will suffer because the housing market is an important part of the US economy.

GBP/USD

The Pound was affected yesterday by speculation that an interest rate hike is still far away but the technical aspect also played an important role in the sharp drop which broke through support.

Technical Outlook

The bears dominate medium and short term momentum and extended moves to the downside have a high chance of happening. Nonetheless, we must pay attention to the oversold condition showed by the Relative Strength Index and must be wary of retracements higher which are likely to occur after such a sharp drop as the one experienced yesterday. With that in mind, our bias is negative and we anticipate a touch of 1.6680 support while the previous important support (1.6750) might turn into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another day which lacks important economic releases for the Pound so price direction will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RETRACEMENTS BUT OVERALL BIAS REMAINS NEGATIVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product showed economic slowdown by posting yesterday a value of -1.0%, lower than analysts’ forecast and lower than the previous value. This damped the market’s appetite for the US Dollar and bearish movement came to a stop.

Technical Outlook

Although the Dollar was negatively affected by the GDP release, the bulls didn’t manage to make substantial advances and 1.3615 wasn’t broken to the upside. The pair moved slow yesterday, in a 40 pip range, a fact which doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction, but since the bulls couldn’t break 1.3615 even if disappointing data came out for the greenback, the pair will most likely resume downwards movement, making another attempt to touch 1.3560.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales come out with an anticipated change of 0.4% compared with last month’s -0.7%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of overall German consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The bears’ momentum was hindered by disappointing US data and as a result, yesterday’s price action was mixed, with some reversals which were difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.6750 that occurred two days ago tipped the balance of power clearly in favor of the bears and today or in the days to come we are likely to see more downside movement. The Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and this increases the chances of bullish movement but a touch of 1.6680 is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases for the Pound and today is no exception as no indicators are released. Price action will be mainly affected by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION AND MANUFACTURING DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bulls made their presence known by taking the pair into 1.3650 resistance. The move was mostly triggered by technical reasons, backed by market indecision due to the approaching of the ECB rate decision.

Technical Outlook

For the last couple of weeks the pair’s movement has been sluggish and low volatility was present. The move north seen Friday is not considered an attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair, but rather just a normal retracement in a slow downtrend. If the pair travels above 1.3700, it would signify that bulls still have underlying power and would open the door for further upside movement, but until that happens, the medium term downtrend is intact and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook

Germany will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT their Consumer Price Index. The CPI is the prime measurement of inflation and for today’s release a change of 0.1% is anticipated, while the previous value was -0.2%. Higher German inflation is considered beneficial for the entire Euro Zone and hence, for the single currency itself. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released and the anticipated value is 55.7, compared with the previous 54.9. Better numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually boost the greenback.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher Friday but the move was not generated by surprise announcements or by economic data and instead we attribute it to technical reasons.

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index signaled in advance a possible bullish move and now price is sitting above the important 1.6750 level. If the bears can manage to take the pair quickly back below this level, the chance of an encounter with 1.6680 support will increase. Otherwise, we are likely to see a touch of 1.6820 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease almost insignificantly from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. A bigger decrease than expected would negatively affect the Pound and would allow the pair to travel south. The US indicator mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA CLOSELY WATCHED AS THE ECB RATE DECISION APPROACHES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro was affected yesterday by a worse than expected German Consumer Price Index while the US Dollar benefited from a slightly better Manufacturing PMI, facts which triggered a slow but bearish day.

Technical Outlook

For the time being 1.3650 resistance is holding as seen from yesterday’s bounce lower. The pair continues to have a small range but we are still favoring moves to the downside and a break of 1.3585 en route to 1.3560. It seems like market participants are waiting for the ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate and maybe until it is released, we will not see strong, unidirectional movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:00 am GMT and it could be the only reason for increased volatility. As mentioned on other occasions, the ECB is closely watching inflation levels as they are highly correlated with the Interest Rate decision. Today’s forecast is 0.7%, no change from the previous value but a higher number will most likely be beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI showed a value that came close to analysts’ forecast and the impact on the pair was light but price traveled below 1.6750 nonetheless.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action was sluggish but some bearish pressure can be seen through the fact that 1.6750 was broken again. This shows that bulls cannot sustain higher prices and that bears might continue downwards price action, with the first target being 1.6680. However, today’s direction might be affected more than usual by British economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is announced and it’s expected to increase from 60.8 to 61.2. The indicator is based on the opinion of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading sign of optimism and economic health so better than expected numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan