Jual Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: OVERBOUGHT MARKETS CALL FOR A RETRACEMENT
​

EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session, the pair touched 1.3830 and US Dollar weakness generated by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes pushed price even higher. The Minutes showed that speculation of an early rate increase might be wrong, a fact which triggered the mentioned greenback weakness.

​

Technical Outlook

The market is controlled by the bulls and moves higher are anticipated. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition and this makes a move lower highly probable. The first level of interest to the down side is 1.3830 and if price will touch it, bullish movement is likely to resume.
Fundamental Outlook
The European Central bunk will release at 8:00 am GMT the Monthly Bulletin which contains information regarding the financial and economic data which was taken into consideration when the ECB decided at what level to set the interest rate. The Bulletin will also contain the bunk’s view on the current and future economic situation.
Some volatility may also be triggered by the G20 Meetings which take place today in Washington DC. One of the main subjects will be the Russia – Ukraine crisis, a topic which created strong movement in the past.

GBP/USD

The pair had slow movement ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, but it started to pick up speed once the Minutes were released and price moved comfortably above 1.6750 resistance.

​

Technical Outlook

The clear break of 1.6750 opens the door for a touch and even a break of the year’s high located at 1.6822. Even if the momentum belongs to the bulls and the US Dollar shows clear signs of weakness, a dip lower is expected because the pair moved almost 250 pips without a retracement. Adding to this is the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index so we expect a move into 1.6750 before price continues higher to touch 1.6822.

Fundamental Outlook

The bunk of England will release today at 11:00 am GMT the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but almost always volatility accompanies this event. The Asset Purchase Facility will be announced at the same time; no change is expected (currently the value is 375 billion Pounds) but a higher value usually weakens the Pound while a lower one is considered bullish. If the Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility is modified in any way, an official statement will be released by the bunk of England, explaining the reasons which determined this decision.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CAN THE BULLS FINISH THE WEEK IN TOTAL CONTROL?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by a very small retracement lower followed by a move higher and a continuation of the previous bullish momentum. The Monthly Bulletin released by the ECB did not generate sharp moves, mainly because it didn’t show any surprising data.

Technical Outlook

Even if the bulls’ strength is obvious, we expect a stronger retracement to the down side, considering the severely overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. This retracement will most likely find support at 1.3830 where a bounce higher has a high probability of occurring. To the up side, the first major resistance level is located at 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index which is estimated to decrease from 1.2% to 1.0%. Inflation highly influences the ECB decision regarding future interest rates and higher than anticipated values have the ability to strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 6:00 am GMT.
Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the United States will announce the Producer Price Index which is expected to change from -0.1% to 0.1%, a fact which would strengthen the US Dollar. The economic week finishes with the release of the US Consumer Confidence, scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and anticipated to increase from the previous 80.0 to 81.2. Confidence among consumers is highly correlated with consumer spending so better numbers for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Interest Rate remained unchanged at 0.50%, a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn’t generate a lot of volatility. However, the pair moved lower during the day and almost touched the support located at 1.6750.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s retracement didn’t manage to bring the Relative Strength Index below the 70 level so the market is still considered overbought, a fact which favors moves south. If such moves will occur today, the level of 1.6750 will act as good support and will probably push price higher, for another attempt to break 1.6822 resistance. The bulls are clearly in control of the pair so moves higher can occur without retracements lower.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic news releases so the pair will be influenced by the US indicators mentioned earlier and by technical factors.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES GENERATE STRONG MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a slow day for the pair and the US Dollar struggled to drive the pair down but didn’t succeed although better than anticipated economic data was released by the United States.

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we can notice the fact that the Relative Strength Index started to move down, out of the overbought territory where it stayed for most of last week. This is indicative of a potential retracement lower, which will most likely touch 1.3830 support. Of course, price can continue to move north today as well, because indicators can signal an overbought condition for extended periods of time; if this is the case resistance will be provided by the level of 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is released today at 9:00 am, with an estimated increase from the previous -0.2% to 0.3%. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicator doesn’t have a high impact on the market. The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales are crucial for the overall state of the economy and higher values are considered bullish for the greenback; today’s forecast is an increase from the previous 0.3% to 0.8%.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced lower Friday and this move was generated by the positive US data we mentioned earlier; however, this doesn’t change the fact that bulls are in control of the pair’s direction.

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned in our Weekly analysis, the pair printed a double top at 1.6820, which is a bearish chart pattern. We anticipate another move up, into this resistance zone and we believe that if price indeed moves there, it will offer hints about future direction: a bounce would indicate that bears are stepping in and a stronger retracement lower is in order, while a break will most likely bring more buyers in the market. Today’s important levels are 1.6750 and 1.6680 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by technical factors as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any high-impact economic data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

2014.04.15 :Retracements complete. Can the bulls resume the uptrend?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The release of the American Retail Sales didn’t create the expected strong movement but the week opened with a gap down which was mostly due to dovish comments made by Mario Draghi during the weekend.

Technical Outlook
During yesterday’s trading session the pair moved below the level located at 1.3830 but today we expect a move back up above this level and possibly an uptrend resumption. For the time being, Monday’s move lower is just a retracement and also a good place for more buyers to join the uptrend so our bias is bullish. A move below 1.3760 would severely weaken this uptrend and would put the bears in control.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the day’s main release for the Euro. Scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, the indicator is expected to decrease to a value of 45 from the previous 46.6, a fact which would most likely weaken the Euro and drive the pair lower. The US Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of inflation will be released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is an increase to 1.4% from 1.1% and if it comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength and moves lower for the pair.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, with the pair moving south during the first part of the day and climbing during the second. The pair had a high-to-low range of less than 50 pips and no special developments took place.

Technical Outlook
We anticipate an increase in traveled distance and stronger moves today. The bulls still have underlying strength so they are likely to take price above 1.6750, in an attempt to break the double top formed at 1.6822/20. To the down side, the first level of interest remains 1.6680 and a move below it would open the door for another break of 1.6600 support.

Fundamental Outlook
The main Pound-affecting event today is the release of United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The CPI is closely watched by the bunk of England when the Interest Rate decision is made, hence the importance of this indicator. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. Also, the pair’s direction will be affected by the release of the US Consumer Price Index.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bullish pressure heightens. Resistance levels tested again​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the German ZEW survey showed a disappointing value while the US Consumer Price Index came out better than expected but the pair was difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames; growing tensions in Ukraine also contributed to this choppy price action.

Technical Outlook

Although during the second part of yesterday’s session the Euro gained against the US Dollar, the level of 1.3830 couldn’t be broken to the up side, a fact which shows that indecision is present in the market. If the uptrend will resume, today we will probably see a break of the mentioned level; otherwise the support located at 1.3760 will become the first target and the uptrend will be severely weakened.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. The current value is 0.5% and no change is expected but the CPI is the main gauge of inflation so the ECB closely watches it when the Interest Rate decision is made and higher values usually strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American house market; the expected value is 1.00M, a small decrease from the previous 1.01M and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.6%, as anticipated but a huge whipsaw was seen once the number was released and price moved higher after an initial drop.

Technical Outlook

The bullish momentum seems to fade away and no major advances were made after the double top formed at 1.6822. If price doesn’t cross soon the barrier located at 1.6750, the bears might step in to take control of the pair so for today the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6680 as support; the break of either level can trigger a continued move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be released; the estimated number is -30.2K, an increase compared to last month’s -34.6K and usually, higher levels of unemployment are detrimental for the Pound because jobless people spend less than people who are employed and consumer spending is crucial for the economy. The data released by the United States will directly affect the pair’s direction throughout the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: LAST ECONOMIC RELEASES BEFORE THE EASTER HOLIDAYS​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index came out as expected, with a value of 0.5% and the US Building Permits didn’t post a surprise either. As a result, the pair lacked clear direction yesterday and price moved above and below 1.3830.

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried to take the pair above 1.3830 but the move was almost immediately reversed, a fact which shows underlying bear strength. However, once price moved below 1.3830, it just remained there and no strong moves occurred. This indicates that indecision is present in the market and almost anything can happen until a clear move is made by either bulls or bears. Our bias is neutral at the moment, in anticipation of a clear display of power from either side. The levels to watch are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important events come from the US today: the Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT and anticipated to increase to 316K from last week’s 300K. A higher level of unemployment is detrimental to the US economy and to the US Dollar but the impact of the indicator is not consistent, mostly because it is released every week. The second economic release is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on manufacturing performance in the Philadelphia district. Higher numbers than today’s anticipated 9.6 usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound scored another victory versus the US Dollar on the back of a better than expected value of Unemployment Rate. As a result, the pair broke 1.6750 resistance and touched 1.6820 again.

Technical Outlook

Price touched the resistance zone formed around 1.6820 for the third time, creating a Triple Top, which is a bearish pattern and is usually seen at the end of an uptrend. This is a major sign that moves south will follow if this triple top cannot be broken soon. The first level that can offer support is 1.6750 but we might also experience a ranging day because no major news releases are scheduled for the Pound.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants will shift their attention towards the US for the releases mentioned above since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news for today. The approaching of the Easter holidays may generate irregular movement and possibly increased volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MAJOR BANKS ARE CLOSED, GENERATING IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls controlled the beginning of yesterday’s trading session and took the pair above 1.3830 but price soon dropped below this level and overall trading lacked clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair will most likely have a behavior which will be difficult to trade due to the fact that major banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Good Friday; this will generate low liquidity and sudden surges of volatility. Moves back above 1.3830 are a distinct possibility but moves lower are not out of the question either and that’s why we recommend caution if trading today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there will be no data releases as most banks and brokerages are closed in observance of Good Friday.

GBP/USD

Yesterday we saw a break of the major resistance located at 1.6820 but the bears took control of the pair as soon as positive US data was released, taking price back below resistance.

Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD and probably to all pairs, the Cable will have a low-volume trading session which will be characterized by abnormal volatility and movement. Caution is recommended and potential breakouts shouldn’t be considered valid until volatility is back to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any financial indicator releases today and the same is true for the United States.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you Happy Easter!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREAK FOR EASTER​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price moved in a range of about 15 pips which was almost impossible to trade. This behavior was triggered by the fact that many brokerages and banks were closed, celebrating Good Friday.

Technical Outlook

Today no movement is anticipated because banks and brokerages around the world are closed due to Easter Holidays. The market takes a break and once trading resumes, 1.3830 is the first level to watch for a bounce or break scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Due to Easter Monday, no important economic or financial indicators are released today.

GBP/USD

The pair also moved sideways Friday as most traders took the day off and volume was extremely thin.

Technical Outlook

The day will lack movement and most markets around the world will be closed today. The important levels to watch once action resumes are 1.6820 and 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is quiet today, for the reasons mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[whyeach]

FOREX NEWS: VOLUME BACK TO NORMAL. THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO REVEAL ITS REAL DIRECTION​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved slowly yesterday, but had a higher range than expected, considering that many banks around the world were closed, celebrating Easter. No economic indicators were released but the US Dollar took the pair lower.

Technical Outlook

We saw an almost perfect bounce lower once price touched 1.3830 resistance and price started to head towards 1.3760 support. However, this movement cannot be considered a clear sign that bears try to take control of price direction and it’s rather just a behavior generated by low volume. Today’s price action will offer better hints about the next medium term direction and the main levels to watch remain 1.3830 and 1.3760.

Fundamental Outlook

All major banks will be open today so volatility is returning to normal but only one important economic indicator is released: The US Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and better figures usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 4.57M, while the previous was 4.60M.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced off resistance yesterday but the movement was slow and the pair moved in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

Now that Easter is behind us, we expect to see where the pair is really headed. The resistance located at 1.6820 rejected price as soon as it was touched and under normal circumstances we would anticipate a touch of 1.6750 or at least a clear move towards it. However, because the pair is in a long term uptrend, another move into 1.6820 or even above it is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no economic data comes out of the United Kingdom and price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by the US release mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING PMIS AND BOE MEETING MINUTES RESTORE VOLATILITY​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued to move without clear direction yesterday and the slightly better than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales didn’t trigger a sharp drop even if some US Dollar strength could be seen at the time of the release.

Technical Outlook

Although the picture is not clear and movement is rather ranging, we can notice some rejection off 1.3830 resistance, which is a sign that 1.3760 might be touched today. We slightly favor the down side but we acknowledge the fact that yesterday’s price action is not very conclusive. The Euro Zone will release 2 economic indicators today so the pair’s direction will be influenced by them, especially because the technical aspect is unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

France announces the Manufacturing PMI at 7:00 am GMT. Analysts expect a very small increase from 51.8 to 51.9 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro since the indicator acts as a gauge of optimism among purchasing managers who activate in the Manufacturing sector. At 7:30 am GMT, the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to increase from 53.7 to 53.9.

The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 2:00 pm GMT, with an increase anticipated: 455K from the previous 440K. A higher number than forecast could take the pair lower on the back of greenback strength.

GBP/USD

Slowly but surely the Pound climbed above the major resistance located at 1.6820 and the better than expected value of the US Existing Home Sales couldn’t generate enough downward momentum to bring price below the mentioned level.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is approaching the level of 70 which indicates an overbought condition of the market; although this is not a sign of clear reversal on its own, it makes further advancements more difficult. We favor a move below 1.6820 unless the bulls can show a quick and clear proof of strength (clear move above the mentioned level). The first support level is located at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Minutes of the latest bunk of England Meeting are released. The document will outline the reasons which stood behind the Interest Rate decision and will contain the breakdown of the members’ votes. The Minutes also allow traders to see how many members are changing their stance regarding the value of the interest rate, thus offering clues about future rate direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MARIO DRAGHI STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started with Euro bulls in control of the pair, on the back of a better than anticipated value of the German Manufacturing PMI. However, the bears came back strong in the second part of yesterday and almost nullified previous advances.

Technical Outlook

A move that appeared to be a valid break of resistance was soon reversed and price traveled south of 1.3830 once again. This erratic movement suggests that the market is still in a state of indecision and that both bullish and bearish moves can occur. The main levels to watch today are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support and stronger moves are anticipated, especially at the time of Mario Draghi’s speech.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at a conference held in Amsterdam and as always, his speech can be a good source of volatility and strong moves, especially if he will talk about ECB’s future monetary policy. The speech is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and an hour earlier, the German Ifo Business Climate will be released, with an anticipated decrease from 110.7 to 110.5. This is a survey of about 7,000 businesses, which acts as a gauge of optimism so usually, higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT, the United States will release the Durable Goods Orders (orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years). Te anticipated value is 2.1% while the previous was 2.2% and under normal circumstances, a decrease would weaken the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, the Pound weakened against the greenback and overall price action trended smoothly downward.

Technical Outlook

The strong resistance located at 1.6820 pushed the pair lower yesterday and by doing so, it also showed us that the long term uptrend is beginning to waver. For today’s trading session we anticipate a move below 1.6750, a fact which would also signify a big victory for the bears. Considering the fact that we are still in an uptrend from a long term perspective, another move into 1.6820 is not out of the question.


Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic indicator releases today so price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US event mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INDECISION STILL PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN THE MARKET​

EUR/USD

Forex News: During a speech at a conference in Amsterdam, Mario Draghi mentioned that “both unconventional and conventional instruments” will be used to deal with the possible threat of deflation. His comment weakened the Euro and allowed the pair to move lower initially but later in the day, growing turmoil in Ukraine generated another climb.

Technical Outlook

Indecision is still present in the market as we saw yesterday from the multiple changes of direction. Price is still struggling without success to break 1.3830 to the north and on the other hand, bears cannot drive the pair lower. We are still expecting a stronger move which will determine the next medium term bias but the direction of that move is hard to predict. The important levels to watch are 1.3760 as support and 1.3830 as immediate resistance, followed by 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no major indicator releases are scheduled by either Europe or the United States so traders will focus on the technical factors.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day and the drop seen Wednesday couldn’t be continued yesterday. Instead, bulls and bears alternated their control over the pair numerous times, creating a difficult trading environment.

Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s trading session lacked clear direction, we still believe that a move into 1.6750 support is in order, but since the pair is ranging lately, we don’t exclude the possibility of moves into 1.6820 resistance. Today the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary because the only major indicator of the day comes from the United Kingdom and this is likely to have a big impact on the pair’s movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The indicator we mentioned above is United Kingdom’s Retail Sales; the release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated value is -0.4%, a sharp drop from the previous 1.7%. Such a drop would be detrimental for the Pound because sales made at a retail level are an important part of the entire economic activity.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: A slow Monday ahead; no major indicators are released


EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair moved in a 20 pip range and no economic data was released by the United States or Europe, making trading very difficult.

Technical Outlook

A 20 pip range is certainly not enough for proper technical analysis and holds almost no clues for future direction. Price has moved above 1.3830 but this cannot be considered a real break, especially because lately this level has been pierced several times. Our bias is neutral until a strong move occurs, which will most likely determine the pair’s next direction. For the moment 1.3760 is support and resistance sits at 1.3900.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is pretty slow in terms of economic releases and the only indicator worth mentioning is the US Pending Home Sales which offers insights into the American house market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if it posts a higher value than the anticipated 1.0%. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Market participants expected the UK Retail Sales to generate strong volatility but after a quick surge up, the move slowed and then reversed almost completely, making Friday another difficult day for intraday trading.

​

Technical Outlook

Friday the bulls made another attempt to break the level of 1.6820 but this resulted in a bounce lower, showing that resistance is holding, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. We don’t expect major moves today, mainly because no major news comes out, but the levels to watch remain 1.6820 as resistance and 1.6750 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price movement will be mainly affected by the US housing data and by the technical aspect of the market as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic or financial indicator releases.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: German CPI and British GDP – the market-movers of the day​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair experienced a sudden rally, which was short lived because the better than expected value of the US Pending Home Sales strengthened the US Dollar and brought price lower, in close vicinity to 1.3830.

Technical Outlook

What appeared to be a strong move away from 1.3830 proved to be a single impulse which was quickly reversed, showing us that bulls lack determination and strength to drive price higher. If price returns below 1.3830, the next target will be the support at 1.3760. The pair continues to trade without clear direction and the technical aspect will be secondary today because important data is released.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Consumer Price Index is released today at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to increase to 1.4% from the current 1.0%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Euro, especially because German inflation influences the entire Euro Zone. The United States release at 2:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. For today’s release, an increase is forecast, from the previous 82.3 to 82.9. Higher values for this indicator usually strengthen the US Dollar and push the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Speculation that today we will see a better than expected value of the UK Gross Domestic Product brought yesterday the pair higher, but similar to the EUR/USD, the rally was soon reversed.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s high located at 1.6858 will most likely act as resistance if price touches it again but if it is surpassed, the next resistance is located at 1.6880 (visible on a weekly chart). The first support sits at 1.6750 and since yesterday’s move up is not convincing and was quickly reversed, we favor a drop towards the mentioned support.

Fundamental Outlook

The technical aspect will be somewhat secondary today because United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is released at 8:30 am GMT. An increase is expected, from the previous 2.7% to 3.2% and if this prediction comes true, the Pound will most likely strengthen because the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance. As always, the pair will be also influenced by the US data released throughout the day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPE FOCUSES ON THE CPI WHILE THE US DOLLAR WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SEVERAL HIGH IMPACT RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Consumer Price Index posted a lower than expected value, weakening the Euro and allowing the bears to take control of the pair and to take price below 1.3830.

Technical Outlook

In light of recent events it looks like the resistance at 1.3900 will not be tested soon as the pair seems to be headed towards 1.3760 support. If this move does occur, the first barrier which needs to be broken is the support at 1.3790 but a lot depends on the value which will be posted today by the European CPI so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Consumer Price Index, which is the region’s most important inflation measure, will be released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected to increase from the current 0.5% to 0.8%. The ECB tries to maintain inflation just below 2% so the current value is considered too low and a figure which doesn’t meet or surpass expectations will most likely weaken the Euro. The ADP Non Farm Employment report will be released at 12:15 pm GMT and although it doesn’t have the huge impact of the government issued indicator (which comes out Friday), numbers above 203K will have a positive impact on the US Dollar.

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Gross Domestic Product is released and a decrease is anticipated: 1.2% from last month’s 2.6%. Such a drop would signify a slower economy, with decreased activity, thus weakening the greenback. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the US Interest Rate is announced (no change anticipated from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Statement which will outline the reasons which stood behind the rate decision and will also show if the Fed will further trim the monetary stimulus (also known as quantitative easing).

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s main event for the Pound was the release of the Gross Domestic Product which showed a lower value than analysts expected and this took the pair lower; soon after, the bulls took price back up, creating a difficult to trade environment.

Technical Outlook

The pair had a mixed day yesterday, with a lot of sharp turns and no clear direction but another move below 1.6820 would be indicative of bear strength and would suggest the uptrend is severely weakened. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market and price action does not favor a specific direction so today the pair’s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect of the market.

Fundamental Outlook

Although today the United Kingdom doesn’t release major data, the day will probably have strong movement as the US events will most likely have a huge impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: LABOR DAY GENERATES A DAY WITH LOW VOLUME

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although the European CPI didn’t meet expectations of 0.8%, it showed that inflation started to pick up and posted a reading of 0.7%, an increase from the previous 0.5%. This fact strengthened the Euro and the pair climbed strongly. The Fed decided to further cut bond purchases by another $10 billion a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn’t create a lot of volatility.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.3790 was tested yesterday and it rejected higher the initial fall seen at the time of the CPI release. The US Dollar shows signs of weakness so we might see a touch of 1.3900 resistance sooner than anticipated. For the moment the first support sits at 1.3830 and the latest momentum belongs to the bulls so moves north are likely to happen, at least until the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought.

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks will be closed today in celebration of Labor Day and this may translate into irregular movement and low volume. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at 12:30 pm GMT at a summit in Washington DC and this will most likely affect the pair’s movement, especially if she will offer hints about future monetary policy. The US Dollar will also be affected today by the release of the Manufacturing PMI which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers, focused on their opinions regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and an increase is expected, from the previous 53.7 to 54.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Gross Domestic Product posted a much worse than anticipated value which allowed the Pound to take the pair into the resistance located at 1.6880.

Technical Outlook

The bulls scored another major victory by taking price into the resistance at 1.6880, a quote that was last seen in November 2009. Such a high price is hard to sustain and we will most likely see retracements lower but keep in mind that bulls control the pair and further advances are not out of the question. The next resistance is located at 1.7040 while support sits at 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an anticipated value of 55.4, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 55.3. The survey is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and its effect on the Pound can be a hefty one if a higher than anticipated figure will be posted. As always, the pair’s movement will be affected by the US events as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: TENSIONS IN UKRAINE. WEAKNESS SHOWN BY THE US DOLLAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a difficult day for intraday traders as the US Non Farm Payrolls showed an improvement of the US jobs situation but the pair moved higher after an initial sharp drop. Some of this movement is attributed to heightened tensions and violence in Ukraine.

Technical Outlook

The pair printed a large pin bar on the support level at 1.3830 and this is indicative of a continued move upwards. The first resistance and target for the pair is 1.3900 but we must keep in mind that US employment is picking up and this may generate US Dollar strength which will be seen in the market once the Ukraine crisis calms down. If this is the case, 1.3830 will act again as support, followed by 1.3790 if a break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Group Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers, The ECB President and other important personalities. Volatility will most likely be present until the meetings conclude so we recommend extra caution. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI will be released, with an estimated value of 54.3. This is a survey which shows the optimism of purchasing managers from the non-manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values can strengthen the US Dollar but the indicator usually has a lower impact than the Manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD

A lower value of the United Kingdom Construction PMI weakened the Pound early Friday morning and took the pair lower but after the US Non Farm Payrolls release, the pair sharply climber back up, nullifying an initial bearish impulse.

​

Technical Outlook

The pair barely touched the resistance located at 1.6820 and price immediately started to move north. This shows the underlying strength of the bulls and the fact that more upwards movement is likely to occur today. However, if the pair cannot climb quickly above 1.6880, we will probably see another touch of 1.6820 support.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s banks will be closed today, celebrating May Day and no economic or financial data will be released, but the Euro Group Meetings and the US Non Manufacturing PMI will have an impact on price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: TIGHT TRADING RANGE. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained almost flat yesterday, moving in a very narrow range. The US Non Manufacturing PMI posted a value that exceeded estimates, but its release didn’t create a lot of volatility although some strength was exhibited by the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook


Yesterday’s ranging price action doesn’t help to determine the next direction and for the time being, we must wait for stronger moves which will reveal if the power lies with the bulls or with the bears. If price fails to move soon above 1.3900, it would be an indication that bears are entering the market and that 1.3830 will be touched again.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s headline is the release of the US Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT) which represents the difference between imported and exported goods. A value above zero shows that United States exports surpass imports but the current value is -42.3 billion US Dollars, a clear deficit; the anticipated value is -40.1 billion US Dollars and any figures closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom banks were closed yesterday and the pair had similar movement to EUR/USD, trading in a small range, with some Dollar strength seen once positive data was posted by the US economy.

Technical Outlook

Today we will most likely see stronger moves and we expect another attempt to break the level at 1.6880. After the top at 1.6920 was printed, the bulls didn’t manage to take price in that area again and this may be an indication that exhaustion is present and that bears are trying to take control of the pair. If today 1.6880 is not broken decisively, the first potential target is 1.6820.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Services PMI is released by the United Kingdom and expected to increase slightly from 57.6 to 57.9. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the services sector, which shows their optimism regarding business conditions so better than estimated values are beneficial for the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES BECOME HARD TO SUSTAIN


EUR/USD

Forex News: Finally the pair started to move stronger yesterday as the Spanish Unemployment Change showed much better figures than anticipated. The surprising value of -111.6K (estimated -49.1K) turned this indicator, which is usually overlooked by market participants, into a major market mover.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s impulse is likely to be continued during the days to come but the condition of the Relative Strength Index which is trading above the level of 70 must be taken into consideration. The overbought state of the pair, as indicated by the RSI favors retracements, but as we know, the market can remain overbought for a long time before price actually starts to fall. If retracements do occur, 1.3900 will act as support while resistance is located at 1.3965, followed by the psychological level of 1.4000.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Factory Orders will be announced today at 6:00 am GMT, showing the monthly change in the value or orders placed with manufacturers. Although the indicator usually has a medium impact on the market, better numbers than the anticipated 0.3% can strengthen the Euro. A more important event is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT: the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in Washington DC. She will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and will answer questions which are not known in advance, a fact which will most likely generate strong moves, depending on her attitude and answers.

GBP/USD

The bulls had a tremendous day yesterday as they managed to take price about 130 pips higher on the back of a better than anticipated value of the UK Services PMI.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s huge climb renewed the uptrend and made 1.7040 the next target for the pair (visible on a Monthly chart). However, the current price is very high and this makes it hard to sustain; the Relative Strength Index is overbought on hourly, four-hour and daily charts and this enhances the probability of bearish moves. The first potential support is located at 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic indicators, so traders will focus more on the technical aspect and on Janet Yellen’s testimony.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND PUBLIC SPEECHES. VOLATILITY IS ALMOST CERTAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action slowed down considerably yesterday compared to the previous day and we saw a small retracement lower which didn’t manage to touch 1.3900. Janet Yellen’s speech generated some volatility but was mostly overlooked by market participants.

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bullish and moves north are favored after a touch of 1.3900. The Relative Strength Index is just coming out of overbought territory, heading down and that’s why we anticipate a touch of 1.3900 before price can resume upwards movement, headed for 1.3965. However, a lot depends on the ECB stance that will be presented today during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central bunk will announce if any changes were made to the Interest Rate (currently 0.25%) and at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about future monetary policy direction. The Rate is not expected to change but the ECB Press Conference is considered one of the most important events for Euro’s short term movement so we recommend extra caution if trading during it. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today before the Senate Budget Committee and this is another reason for increased volatility but the market’s reaction remains to be seen.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound retraced yesterday but the bearish move lacked strength and the market was mostly in a ranging state, with a lot of choppy price action.

Technical Outlook

The Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and yesterday’s bearish movement was not convincing, but a touch of 1.6920 is not out of the question. If this touch occurs, it will most likely trigger a bounce higher and the first barrier in front of rising prices is the latest top created at 1.6996, followed by 1.7040 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Official bunk Rate which usually creates volatility even if no change takes place. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. Yellen’s testimony later in the day will have an impact as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan