Jual Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

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2013.12.09 : The Forex market: Euro Group Meetings – a reason for volatility

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Friday’s better than expected US Non Farm Employment data initially brought the pair lower but positive Euro sentiment generated by Mario Draghi’s comments made Thursday hindered an extended move south. As a result, the pair had a bullish day and important resistance was touched.

Technical Outlook
After a perfect touch of the support located at 1.3620 price started to move to the upside, solidifying the control of the bulls, but now important resistance sits in front of higher prices: 1.3710 which was the previous high of the year. On a four hour chart we notice the Relative Strength Index is approaching the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition of the market and this makes a break of resistance less likely although not impossible.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:00 am GMT the German Industrial Production numbers will be released, showing the change in the total output generated by the Industrial sector. The expected figure is 0.8%, a hefty increase from the previous -0.9%. Better than expected numbers show increased industrial activity and usually drive the pair higher. The Euro Group meetings take place today, attended by important personalities of the financial and political scene. This may translate into volatility and hard to trade movements, depending on the matters discussed.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound at the time of the Non Farm Employment report release but soon after, the pair moved up, touching resistance before moving south once again. As a result, Friday’s trading session was very difficult for intraday traders.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6380 was touched Friday but a swift bounce lower occurred shortly after. This proves the power of this resistance level and gives us hints about future price direction which appears to be down. However, another touch of 1.6380 is not out of the question as a downtrend is not established and first support is located at 1.6320.

Fundamental Outlook
In the second part of the day, at 5:15 pm GMT, bunk of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Economic Club of New York and usually strong moves are seen during his speeches so we recommend caution if trading at the time. No economic indicators are released by the United Kingdom and we expect a quiet trading session, at least until Mark Carney’s speech.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

YM: [email protected] | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2013.12.10 : Forex News:The bulls refuse to give up control

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved at a very slow pace yesterday and no major developments took place as volatility remained low for almost the entire day and price moved in a 50 pip range.

Technical Outlook
Although the session was very slow, the pair crawled above the resistance located at 1.3710 but we don’t consider this to be a decisive break which will generate additional moves to the upside. Price seems undecided about the next direction and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is signaling an overbought condition which may trigger a retracement lower. However, the uptrend is still intact and a successful re-test of the broken level may result in higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook
The day is pretty slow in terms of economic indicators released by the Euro Zone or the United States and the most important event is represented by the ECOFIN meetings which will be attended by Finance Ministers of the EU member states. Although the meetings are closed to the press, sometimes officials speak to journalists during the day and an official statement will be released once the meetings have concluded.

GBP/USD

The pair experienced a strong bullish day, with price moving steadily to the upside after a close encounter with support which generated a clear break of the resistance located at 1.6380.

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition of the market and 1.6440 resistance is sitting in front of rising prices. This makes us believe that a retracement will occur if price touches this level while the overbought condition is still valid. However, a break above resistance would renew the uptrend, bringing in additional buyers.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Manufacturing Production is announced today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 1.2% to 0.4%. Lower numbers suggest diminished economic activity and may weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be released; the previous value was 0.7% and estimates above this value may strengthen the bullish sentiment.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

YM: [email protected] | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2013.12.11 : Forex News: Overextended prices call for a retracement

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro maintained and even increased its gains against the US Dollar and we are experiencing the longest continuous rise in almost a year. Price is trading above 1.3710 and the yearly high located at 1.3832 is in jeopardy.

Technical Outlook
The break of 1.3710 resistance proved to be a real one and more bulls joined the rally, taking price even higher and although the Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition of the market, the pair keeps rising. Under normal circumstances we would anticipate a retracement lower but considering the latest strength shown by the Euro, we acknowledge the increased probability of a touch of the resistance located at 1.3830.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a very slow day ahead, with the single notable event being the release of the German Final Consumer Price Index. The event is scheduled at 07:00 am GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.2%; however, higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

The pair had a rather slow day and price moved mostly sideways although the UK Gross Domestic Product Estimate came out better than anticipated.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6440 is still holding even if it was tested several times during yesterday’s trading session. Price is moving above and below the mentioned level and the bullish rally seems exhausted. No major developments took place yesterday and this makes it hard to predict with accuracy the pair’s next move. Consequently, our sentiment is neutral on the pair but we slightly favor a retracement lover.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicators and we expect price direction to be mostly driven by technical factors.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

YM: [email protected] | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2014.01.20 :Forex News: Slow movement generated by the lack of major economic releases

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although Friday the US Consumer Sentiment showed a worse than expected value, the pair continued to drop, clearly breaking 1.3550 support and suggesting that bulls are losing control of the pair.

Technical Outlook
The break of 1.3550 support opens the door for a move into 1.3455 daily support but at the moment the Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition on an hourly chart so we anticipate a move up to re-test the recently broken level, followed by a bounce lower. We have a pretty slow day in terms of economic releases so it’s very likely that price will move in a ranging manner.

Fundamental Outlook
US banks are closed today, celebrating Martin Luther King Day so the US session will lack trading volume. The Euro will be affected by the German Producer Price Index which comes out early at 07:00 am GMT and shows fluctuations in price charged by producers for their goods. The expected value is 0.2%, an increase from the previous -0.1% and usually better numbers are beneficial for the Euro but the indicator is considered to have a medium impact on the pair.

GBP/USD

The expected value for the UK Retail Sales was 0.5% but the actual was 2.6%, a huge increase which generated a massive move up and took the pair into resistance once again.

Technical Outlook
The bullish move seen Friday was generated by fundamental reasons but the resistance located at 1.6440 managed to stop the initial impulse. If the pair fails to break this resistance today, we believe that during the days to come, price will start to move to the downside, towards the place where the move originated (1.6315). Given that usually Mondays are slow days and no fundamental events take place, we don’t believe the pair will make substantial advances to either side.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic or financial releases and this fact combined with the US Banks being closed may generate ranging price action.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

YM: [email protected] | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.01.21 :Forex News: Today’s headline – the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked major economic releases and price had a slow but steady bullish direction. Overall, we had a calm day, without sharp reversals.

Technical Outlook
The oversold condition of the market resulted in a move up which couldn’t be reversed immediately by the level of 1.3550. However, we still favor a move to the downside and consider yesterday’s movement just a retracement. If price reaches it, 1.3580 might be a good place for a turn south and trend resumption.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, with an anticipated value of 63.4, an increase from the previous 62.0. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 275 German institutional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to offer their outlook for the next 6 months. Better than expected numbers can strengthen the Euro substantially as this indicator is perceived as a high-impact one.

GBP/USD

The pair ranged for almost the entire session and we witnessed another failed attempt at breaking the resistance located at 1.6440. No economic indicators were released by either the US or the United Kingdom and this greatly contributed to the pair’s lack of clear direction.

Technical Outlook
The fact that price tried to break 1.6440 resistance and failed makes us believe that another move towards 1.6315 will follow. The pair doesn’t show a clear trend and in a ranging market both bullish and bearish moves are likely to occur but the fact that buyers didn’t manage to break resistance after last week’s strong impulse makes us favor a scenario where sellers will step in and take price lower.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release today any major economic indicators so price action will be influenced by the technical aspect of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

YM: [email protected] | Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2014.01.29 :Forex News: FOMC Statement – the day’s market mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started on a bearish note and support appeared to be broken but a worse than anticipated value of the US Durable Goods Orders weakened the US Dollar and created a sharp reversal.

Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading between 1.3650 support and 1.3710 resistance but yesterday’s failed attempt at breaking support may result in a bounce higher for another encounter with resistance and a potential continuation of last week’s bullish impulse. The FOMC statement is the day’s market mover and we might experience ranging price action, without a clear direction until the time of its release.

Fundamental Outlook
The FOMC Statement is the most important event of the day and comes out late at 7:00 pm GMT, together with the Federal Funds Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.25%. The Statement will contain important insights about the reasons which stood behind the rate vote and also an economic outlook which may offer hints about future rates. Discussions about the monetary stimulus program will most likely generate very strong movement in the market so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product met expectations yesterday, coming out with a value of 2.8% but the event created very difficult to trade price action, reversing the direction several times in a short while.

Technical Outlook
The strong resistance created at 1.6600 was touched yesterday but price was pushed lower signifying that the power of the bulls is starting to fade. However, we are still in a medium-term uptrend so moves to the upside are very possible. We favor slightly the down side but acknowledge the fact that price action today will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Statement.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT, bunk of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry luncheon in Edinburgh; almost all his public speeches generate volatility in the market, depending on the matters discussed so we recommend caution at the time of the event. Of course the FOMC Statement will strongly affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.01.30 :Forex News: Fed decides to cut QE value – lower prices anticipated

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday was a pretty active day and even before the FOMC Statement came out, we experienced a sharp reversal. The statement showed the Fed decided to cut the value of the Quantitative Easing (QE) from $75B to $65B and this created erratic movement with a lot of sharp reversals.

Technical Outlook
Although at the time of the FOMC Statement price reversed numerous times (visible on the lower time frame charts), the US Dollar will probably strengthen during the next days and we anticipate a move lower, into the support located 1.3550. This distance will not be traveled in one day and the first level of importance to the downside is 1.3603, yesterday’s low. To the upside, 1.3710 remains confirmed resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Consumer Price Index is released at 1:00 pm GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 1.4% to 1.5%. This is the most important gauge of inflation and the German economy is one of the most important among the Euro Zone states so the indicator has the potential to strongly influence the Euro; higher values usually strengthen the single currency. At 1:30 pm GMT an even more important event is scheduled: the release of the US Advance Gross Domestic Product which is expected to drop from the previous 4.1% to 3.3%. The Gross Domestic Product shows the overall performance of the economy so lower values are detrimental for the currency.

GBP/USD

Before the FOMC Statement the pair touched resistance once again, without breaking it and the actual event didn’t generate substantial moves to either side.

Technical Outlook
The pair did move lower yesterday after another test of the resistance located at 1.6600 but the effect of the QE trimming is probably going to be seen during the days to come. US Dollar strength may generate an extended move to the south, with the first target being 1.6440. Resistance is still located at 1.6600, followed by the year’s high at 1.6667.

Fundamental Outlook
At 09:30 the Net Lending to Individuals is released by the UK, showing the change in the value of loans issued to customers. It is a medium-impact indicator but values above the anticipated 1.9B may strengthen the Pound. The release of the US GDP will affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.03 :Forex News: Oversold conditions signal a potential retracement

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to drop, without the anticipated retracement higher, partly due to a lower than anticipated Euro Zone Consumer Price Index but the main reason was US Dollar strength generated by the trimming of the bond buying value.

Technical Outlook
On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is indicating a severe oversold condition and the bearish move is overextended. Based on these factors, we believe today price will climb but the medium term control belongs to the bears and probably 1.3550 will not be broken to the upside if price reaches it. To the down side, the first support is represented by 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, showing the opinions of about 400 managers regarding the business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected number is 56.2, a decrease from the previous 57.0 and usually higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued to strengthen Friday against the Pound but no spectacular developments took place and support is still holding.

Technical Outlook
The support located at 1.6440 was touched once again Friday and price even crawled below it but at the moment the Relative Strength Index is close to an oversold condition and retracements higher are a distinct possibility. However, we anticipate a break of the mentioned support once a retracement is complete and the oversold condition is cleared.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released at 09:30 am GMT, with a slight decrease anticipated from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing industry and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound. Of course, the US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.10 :Forex News: The lack of major data releases causes slow price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued to climb on the back of worse than anticipated numbers shown by the US Non Farm Employment report and price came very close to 1.3650 resistance, consolidating the short term control of the bulls.

Technical Outlook
As seen on a Daily chart, price is approaching a confluence zone created by the resistance located at 1.3650 and the trend line drawn from last year’s high. Usually confluence zones are hard to break so today we might see a bearish move. The Relative Strength Index is also approaching an overbought condition on the four hour chart, making further upside movement more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic releases and the only noteworthy indicator is the French Industrial Production which comes out early at 07:45 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 1.3% to -0.1%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro but the indicator usually has a mild impact on the pair.

GBP/USD

The control belonged to the bulls during Friday’s trading session and the move up was mostly generated by US Dollar weakness, not by Pound strength.

Technical Outlook
Friday’s bullish move brought the pair once again above 1.6315 and made 1.6440 the first target for today’s trading session. However, we consider that a touch of this resistance will most likely generate a bounce lower, not a break to the upside, especially considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days and strong levels are rarely broken.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases and this contributes to our belief that a sow day is ahead.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.12 : Forex News: True break of resistance or single impulse?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar weakened considerably during yesterday’s trading session as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen commented that recovery of the US employment situation is “far from complete”. This allowed the pair to move above resistance and consolidated the control of the bulls.

Technical Outlook
The confluence zone created by 1.3650 resistance and the down trend line drawn from last year’s high was broken yesterday and this is a sign that further advances to the upside are probable. However, the Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition and a possible move to the downside. Today’s price action will show us if the break was a true one and the pair is re-testing the broken level or if it was just an impulse generated by Yellen’s comments.

Fundamental Outlook
Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is announced at 10:00 am GMT and a big decrease is expected from the previous 1.8% to -0.2%. The indicator shows the change in the productivity of the industrial sector and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro, driving price higher.

GBP/USD

The pair was also affected by Yellen’s comments and as a result the US Dollar weakened against the Pound, triggering a break of resistance.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6440 was broken again yesterday and lately price seems to respect it less, moving through it with relative ease. A successful re-test of the broken level followed by a bounce would indicate that the level has turned into support once more and that further moves to the upside will follow. The Relative Strength Index is in close vicinity to the overbought level so it is possible to see moves below 1.6440 during today’s trading session.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day for the Pound will be the release of the Inflation Report and the Press Conference held by Governor Mark Carney regarding the Report. bunk of England’s projection about inflation and a two year economic growth outlook will be contained in the report and Carney’s attitude during the conference will be closely watched by market participants in an attempt to identify the pair’s next direction. Both events take place at 10:30 am GMT and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.13 : Forex News: US Retail Sales, the day’s market-mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dropped sharply during yesterday’s trading session as the Euro Zone Industrial Production posted worse than expected numbers, indicating decreased activity and a slowdown of the economic recovery.

Technical Outlook
The latest move above 1.3650 failed to produce the expected results and price returned below resistance on the back of disappointing economic data. This shifts the balance of power in favor of the bears once more but the pair faces support at 1.3550 and moves to the north are a distinct possibility since no clear trend is in place. Today’s important US events will have a strong impact on price movement, overshadowing the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to slightly decrease from the previous 0.2% to 0.0%. The retail sector represents a major part of the entire consumer spending which in turn represents the biggest part of the US economy so better than expected values usually strengthen the greenback. Later in the day, at 3:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech has the potential to be a major market mover so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened substantially against the US Dollar after the Inflation Report showed the bunk of England has a positive outlook regarding economic growth and hinted about future interest rate increases.

Technical Outlook
After breaking 1.6440, price stalled there for a while before moving furiously to the upside. Now the important resistance located at 1.6600 is very close but the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition on a four hour chart. After such a strong move, a retracement is in order, even if the medium term control clearly belongs to the bears. The pair’s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect and the technical part will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
Although the United Kingdom didn’t schedule the release of any economic or financial indicators, the US Retail Sales and Janet Yellen’s testimony will most likely generate volatility and sharp moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.14 : Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls may give back some of their gains

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar weakened substantially against the Euro as the US Retail Sales showed a decrease of consumer spending, allowing the pair to climb for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved back above 1.3650, continuing the bullish impulse seen in the beginning of the week; however price is showing signs of rejection judging by the long upper wicks of the candles and strong resistance is ahead (1.3710). We are neutral on the pair but consider that a successful re-test of the recently broken level will bring the pair into 1.3710 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Gross Domestic Product is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.6% to 1.3%. Such an increase will most likely strengthen the Euro as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. Later in the day at 2:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually has a strong impact on the pair. The expected figure is 80.6, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 80.4.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued to gain against the greenback and the important resistance located at 1.6600 was broken relatively easy.

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s climb stopped in the resistance zone created around 1.6665 and a retracement lower is still anticipated, considering the severe overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. Without a doubt the bulls are in control but a retracement is needed before the pair can move into the resistance located at 1.6750. If a move into the mentioned resistance occurs, we don’t expect it to be completed today.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price action will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.17 :The Forex Market: Markets react to the Euro Group Meetings

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Friday the US posted mixed data but overall the Dollar is weakening and this combined with better than anticipated German Gross Domestic Product generated another bullish move which took price into resistance.

Technical Outlook
The pair finished last week right on the important resistance located at 1.3710 and the Relative Strength Index just touched the 70 level, showing signs of an overbought market. These factors make us believe that today price may stall or retrace lower but the market can remain overbought for an extended period of time so further bullish advances are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Group meetings take place today and are attended by personalities from the political and financial scene. The meetings are usually closed to the press but officials often speak with journalists during the day and this can generate volatility and sharp moves, depending on the matters discussed. The US Banks will be closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day so the New York session may be characterized by irregular movement.

GBP/USD

The Pound showed tremendous strength against its counterpart and Friday the pair climbed for the fourth consecutive day on the back of speculation about a potential interest rate hike.

Technical Outlook
Price rocketed Friday and the important resistance located at 1.6750 was touched, setting the scene for a bounce-or-break scenario. Without a doubt the bulls are in control of the market but the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is showing a severe overbought condition. This fact, combined with the strength of the current level may finally generate a retracement lower which will most likely be followed by a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for today so price action will be driven mostly by the technical aspect of the market.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.18 :Forex News: Resuming bullish price action?

EUR/USD
Forex News:Yesterday the pair ranged for almost the entire day and the Euro Group meetings didn’t do much to change this behavior. Resistance is still holding and price is trading very close to it.

Technical Outlook
Recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction but the resistance located at 1.3710 is still holding. However, this resistance level didn’t reject strong movement and it didn’t generate a bounce lower so we consider that it is pretty fragile and can be broken by a bullish impulse. Important data is released today so a direction will probably be established.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, with an anticipated decrease from the previous 61.7 to 61.3. The importance of this survey comes from the fact that it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German institutional investors and professional analysts who are asked to rate the 6 month outlook for the German economy. Due to the nature of their jobs, they are highly informed about the economic situation and can give an accurate assessment. Usually, better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Pound’s strength took the pair above the resistance located at 1.6750 but yesterday the much anticipated retracement lower finally occurred and the bears made their presence known.

Technical Outlook
The uptrend is still very strong and yesterday’s move lower is considered just a retracement which cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, not a reversal. We expect trend resumption today but if price will stop in the resistance zone (1.6750), then maybe the strength of the bulls is exhausted and the bears will take over. The first potential support is located at 1.6665 and may push price higher if touched.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and it is also taken into consideration by the bunk of England when the interest rate decision is made. Values of the CPI which exceed a certain range may determine the BoE to adjust rates and although the current value of 2.0% is not expected to change today, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release; usually higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.19 :The Forex Market: Fed and BoE Meeting Minutes – the day’s headlines

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Despite a worse than expected value of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and resistance was broken decisively.

Technical Outlook
The decisive break of 1.3710 resistance confirms the strength of the bulls and the fact that the pair is in trading in an uptrend. This makes 1.3830 the next major resistance and target but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index surpassed the 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the market. Of course, this condition doesn’t mean that a retracement will occur right away but further advances may be more difficult. The broken resistance located at 1.3710 is likely to turn into support if price will reach it again.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Producer Price Index is released today at 1:30 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and usually higher values strengthen the US Dollar due to inflationary implications (eventually a higher price charged by producers will be passed on to the consumer). For today’s release, analysts expect a decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.2%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT, the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons which influenced the Rate decision. Volatility will most likely be present at the time of the release.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising decrease to 1.9% from the anticipated 2.0%, a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and allowed the pair to move lower.

Technical Outlook
The pair touched support at 1.6665 and now looks prepared for another bullish push towards 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition and allows moves higher but a fall below 1.6600 would shift the balance of power in favor of the bears. Today’s price action will be highly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom releases the Claimant Count Change at 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous -24.0K to -18.3K, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound since the indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits. At the same time the bunk of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will contain a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2014.02.21: FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK WITH A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US data released yesterday strengthened the US Dollar while German and French PMIs both showed a worse than anticipated value which proved detrimental for the Euro. Overall we had a bearish day and the pair moved slowly beneath support.

Technical Outlook
The fact that price moved below 1.3710 indicates that the power of the bulls is fading and makes 1.3650 the next target. However, the pair is still in a medium term uptrend so bullish moves are a distinct possibility, especially because the break of 1.3710 is not clear or very strong. If this is the case, the first potential resistance is located at 1.3770.

Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released with an anticipated decrease from the previous 4.87M to 4.73M. Under normal conditions better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar and take the pair lower. The Euro Zone didn’t schedule any news releases for today.

GBP/USD

The pair continued to move lower throughout yesterday’s trading session, fueled by good US data but price action was choppy, with a lot of reversals on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook
As we mentioned before, we consider that the bears will show real signs of strength if price drops below 1.6600. So at the moment the bias is still bullish, although price didn’t bounce higher off the support located at 1.6665. The upper target of the day is 1.6750 while the first important support is located at 1.6600. However, the pair’s movement will be highly affected by the UK data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
An important UK event is scheduled today: the release of the Retail Sales numbers. A big decrease is anticipated from the previous 2.6% to -0.9%, a fact which would weaken the Pound and allow the pair to move lower. The release is scheduled at 09:30 am GMT and will probably have a strong impact on the market. The US Existing Home Sales will also affect the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.02.24 :Forex News: European data likely to generate the day’s bias

EUR/USD

Forex News: The worse than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales contributed to the US Dollar weakness seen Friday but similar to the pair’s behavior throughout the rest of the week, the move up lacked strength and price didn’t continue in the same direction afterwards.

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading between the support located at 1.3710 and the minor resistance formed around 1.3770 and today we anticipate a break of either one of these two levels. However, recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future movement so an accurate assessment is difficult to give but the medium term control belongs to the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Business Climate survey is released at 09:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 110.7, a small increase from the previous 110.6. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample size of about 7,000 businesses and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the single currency.

An hour later the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced but no change is anticipated from the current 0.7%. The CPI is used by the Central bunk as a gauge of inflation and a value outside a certain range would determine a rate adjustment; usually higher values strengthen the Euro, taking the pair north.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair had one of the hardest to trade days in a long while. Price moved up and down many times and almost the entire trading session was characterized by sharp reversals on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook
The Pound is weakened by disappointing economic data and we expect moves lower. However, the first barrier in front of falling prices is 1.6600, a level which is not confirmed support because it didn’t reject prices higher on previous occasions. Today’s price action will show if this level is indeed support but nonetheless, a move below it would indicate that bears are starting to gain strength and would make 1.6440 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day so price direction will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.03.04 : Forex News: Support levels are targeted

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didn’t react almost at all during Mario Draghi’s testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the president’s comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didn’t strengthen as estimated.

Technical Outlook
Friday’s top couldn’t be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pair’s movement.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI met analysts’ forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didn’t create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls don’t have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

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2014.03.05 :Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.

Technical Outlook
Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldn’t be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

Fundamental Outlook
Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesn’t have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldn’t move decisively away from 1.6665.

Technical Outlook
No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​

 

[pasfx]

2014.03.07 :Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central bunk kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.

Technical Outlook
The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today’s US employment report shows a surprising value.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day’s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today’s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.

GBP/USD

bunk of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]​