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2013.06.13 : Technical analysis indicators are still in overbought territory
EUR/USD
According to our technical analysis indicators, during yesterday’s trading session the pair managed to climb above the resistance located at 1.3320, a rally generated in part by the better than expected Euro Zone Industrial Production numbers: actual 0.4% and anticipated -0.2%.
Yesterday the UK Claimant Count Change posted a decrease from the estimated -6.8K to -8.6K, a beneficial fact for the British Pound and the result was a trading session dominated by the bulls.
2013.06.14 : Forex Profits taking may generate lower prices
EUR/USD
After a strong forex profits taking, the pair yesterday came very close to the resistance located at 1.3400 but failed to break or even touch it and retraced lower as a result. The US Retail Sales numbers came out with a value of 0.6, better than the estimated 0.4%
Overall yesterday’s trading session was mixed, with price trying to find a clear direction but failing to do so. The US data did not have a great impact on the pair.
2013.06.17 : The Forex Market: Testing support levels?
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: During Friday’s trading session, after a long time the sellers managed to close price lower than it opened and this resulted in a daily bearish candle, just the third this month. The move lower was mostly based on profit taking and closing of long positions by the bulls.
Although in the first part of Friday’s trading session the sellers seemed in complete control, by the end of the day the bulls managed to bring price back up towards the opening of the day.
2013.06.18 : The Forex Market: A move lower is still expected.
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: The movement was choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair didn’t seem to find a clear direction. The G8 Meetings did not bring any major changes to the trading environment and overall price action was confined within a range.
2013.06.19 : Forex Interest Rate: Today’s headline – The Federal Funds Rate announcement
EUR/USD
Forex Interest Rate: Yesterday’s price action was very difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames where a lot of whipsaws and sudden changes of direction occurred. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey came out with a value of 38.5, better than the anticipated 38.2, a fact which strengthened the Euro but did not prevent the pair to move briefly lower afterwards.
Although the British CPI came out better than expected (actual 2.7% and forecast was 2.6%), the release failed to bring the pair substantially higher and the predicted drop towards 1.5600 took place.
2013.06.20 : Forex Technical Analysis: Can the Bears continue the strong momentum?
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, the pair moved above and below the level of 1.3400, in a small range. The US Federal Funds Rate remained unchanged as expected, but the event created huge volatility and price broke free of 1.3400.
The pair returned yesterday to touch 1.5600 once again and bounced slightly higher afterwards; however the important US events “crushed” 1.5600 and took the pair into the support located at 1.5490.
2013.06.21 : The Forex Market: A calm end for a wild week?
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: During yesterday’s trading session we saw lower prices for our pair, generated by the strong bearish momentum and also by the better than expected US data: the Existing Home Sales came out at 5.18M, better than the anticipated 5.01M. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index posted a surprising higher than anticipated value: 12.5 (forecast was -0.6).
The US data affected the Cable as well and we experienced a break of 1.5490 generated by US Dollar strength. However, a high value of the UK Retail Sales brought price back up and we saw a touch from below of the level mentioned.
2013.06.24 : The Forex Market: Stalling at support.
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: After a pretty slow start to Friday’s trading session, the bears managed to decisively break 1.3200 and even took price into the support located at 1.3120 (1.3100). No major fundamental events took place and the session was mostly driven by technical factors.
The Cable retraced slightly higher before moving decisively below 1.5490 but it wasn’t able to break the minor support located at 1.5375. However, last week ended with the bears dominating the market.
2013.06 .25 : The Forex Market: A new day under Bear control?
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: Although yesterday’s price action was not very clear and price mostly traded in a range, the pair traveled into the 1.3160 support, breaking 1.3120. The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value of 105.09, not far away from the expected 106.0 so the release did not create a lot of volatility.
The Cable failed to move lower and price found support near the level of 1.5375. The up move that followed had technical reasons but it didn’t have enough strength to reach 1.5490.
2013.06.26: Forex Technical Analysis: A break of support is anticipated
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: All the US indicators released yesterday posted better than anticipated numbers, generating US Dollar strength and consequently a move lower for our pair, after testing again the resistance zone created around 1.3120.
During yesterday’s trading session the pair moved higher, in close vicinity of the resistance located at 1.5490 but failed to break or even touch it, confirming the fact that buyers don’t have enough strength at the moment.
2013.06.27: Forex Technical Analysis: Aiming towards major support.
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: During yesterday’s trading session the bears managed to break the support located at 1.3060 and to solidify their control over the market. However, for a brief moment the bulls were in control on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the worst than expected US Final Gross Domestic Product (actual 1.8% and anticipated 2.4%).
The support located at 1.5375 was broken during yesterday’s trading session, just as anticipated and the Hidden Bearish Divergence we talked about did a good job at predicting the move.
2013.06.28: The Forex Market: Can the bears finish the week in total control?
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: The pair had a mixed and overall ranging trading pattern yesterday, probably because both the German and US data came out better than anticipated and this strengthened both currencies, resulting in market indecision.
The pair moved substantially lower during yesterday’s trading session and even touched the major support located at 1.5220 on the back of worse than expected numbers for UK’s Current Account and better than expected US data.
2013.07.02: The Forex Market: A breakout is imminent
EUR/USD
During yesterday’s trading session price was mostly confined within the support located at 1.3000 and the resistance located at 1.3060. The US Manufacturing PMI came very close to the anticipated value and for this reason, the volatility remained low.
For the most part of yesterday’s trading session the pair moved above and below 1.5220, as anticipated. The UK Manufacturing PMI came out better (52.5) than anticipated (51.3), a fact which strengthened the Pound and drove the pair higher.
2013.07.03: Forex Technical Analysis: A volatility boost after two slow days
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Surprisingly the pair remained for the second day inside the range created between 1.3060 and 1.3000. The Spanish Unemployment numbers came out better than anticipated but the pair didn’t seem to be affected by the event.
The pair managed to move below last week’s lowest price of 1.5165 but the move was far from being a decisive one and overall the Cable had a slow movement. The UK Construction PMI came out with a value close to the anticipated one and this contributed to the lack of volatility.
2013.07.05: Forex Technical Analysis: Center stage is held by US Employment data.
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: During the ECB Press Conference Mario Draghi said: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time” and this was the trigger for the sharp fall experienced by the pair. It reflects a dovish attitude and points towards further declines.
The bunk of England indicated that interest rates will not be increased anytime soon and this was perceived as a very bearish sign, hence the 200 pip drop seen during yesterday’s trading session.
2013.07.08: The Forex Market: The ingredients for a volatile Monday are present
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: Friday price action was totally governed by the US Non Farm Employment Change which came out better than expected and substantially strengthened the US Dollar driving the pair lower, into the support located at 1.2840.
The strong US Dollar drove the pair lower Friday and we saw a clean break of the major support located at 1.5020; the entire session was controlled by the bears and the pair moved very close to this year’s lowest price.
2013.07.09: Forex Technical Analysis: Resuming the bearish trend?
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Mario Draghi’s public speech did not bring the expected volatility and for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the pair moved slowly but steady on a bullish path. The move is corrective and represents a much needed retracement after a sharp fall.
The pair did not manage to break this year’s low and had a bullish movement, similar to the EUR/USD . The day lacked any major fundamental developments and this resulted in a lack of strong movement.
2013.07.10: The Forex Market: The battle for the year’s low has begun
EUR/USD
The Forex Market: During yesterday’s trading session the pair dropped and broke the important support located at 1.2840 on the back of dovish comments coming from ECB Executive-Board Member Joerg Asmussen who said that low interest rates may remain at low levels for more than 12 months.
The UK Manufacturing Production was released yesterday with a worse than anticipated value (actual -0.8% and forecast 0.3%), a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and drove the pair lower for a touch of 1.4830.
2013.07.11: Forex Technical Analysis: Corrective moves or trend reversal?
EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Slowly but surely the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and the buyers managed to take price above the level of 1.2840. The release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes generated another bullish impulse and price touched 1.2950.
Technical Outlook
Fundamental Outlook
GBP/USD
The Cable also had a bullish bias during yesterday’s trading session and the year’s low proved too strong for the pair to break. The UK did not release any economic or financial data and the main event of the day was the release of the FOMC Minutes.
2013.07.12: Forex Exchange Rates: Currency wars – a reversal is looming
EUR/USD
Forex Exchange Rates: The massive bullish move experienced by the pair was generated by a comment made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who pointed towards maintaining the stimulus program and an accommodative monetary policy. However, during yesterday’s trading session price retraced lower and the bullish move did not continue.
