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August 14-17: economic events ★★★
Euro area:
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French preliminary GDP (5:30 GMT). The euro zone’s second largest economy surprised by growing in Q4 2011 (analysts expected contraction) and remained flat in Q1 2012. PMIs and other indicators point to a 0.1% q/q decline in Q2.
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German preliminary GDP (6:00 GMT). Germany’s strong 0.5% q/q growth in Q1 saved the whole euro area from entering an official recession. However, the situation deteriorated in Q2: GDP growth is expected to drop to only 0.1% q/q.
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Flash GDP (9:00 GMT). Economists expect the euro zone’s economy to contract by 0.2% q/q in Q2 after zero growth in Q1. Note that the estimates are likely to change once Germany and France release their figures.
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German and euro zone ZEW economic sentiment (9:00 GMT). German indicator fell to -19.6 points in July, disappointing once again, and showing the growing pessimism in the German business community. In August specialists expect a very small recovery to -19.2. Meanwhile, the indicator for the entire euro zone is likely to improve from - 22.3 points in July to -19.1 in August.
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Industrial production (9:00 GMT). Industrial output may have contracted by 0.4% m/m in June after an unexpected increase by 0.6% m/m in May.
Great Britain:
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CPI (8:30 GMT). The key inflation index is expected to have increased by 2.3% y/y in July – CPI’s growth rate is slowing down from 2.8% in May and 2.4% in June.
US:
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Retail sales (12:30 GMT). Retail sales probably rose in July for the first time in four months as employment picked up. The important gauge of consumer spending is expected to rise by 0.4% m/m in July following a 0.5% m/m decline in June. Core retail sales are to rise by 0.4% after a 0.4% m/m decline in the previous month. However, according to HSBC economists, consumer spending growth remains subdued as consumers are still trying to rebuild savings.
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PPI (12:30 GMT). According to consensus, the PPI index may have added by 0.3% m/m in July following a 0.1% growth in June.
Wednesday, August 15
Britain:
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Unemployment claims from Claimant Count (8:30 GMT). Jobless claims may have increased by 6.3K in July after adding 6.1K in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 8.1%. Such forecasts show that UK labor market is likely to stay weak.
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MPC meeting minutes (8:30 GMT). The odds are that the MPC’s decision to leave monetary policy unchanged in August (the key interest rate at 0.5% and QE at 375 billion pounds) was unanimous. As the central bunk slashed forecasts for domestic economy last week, analysts think that there’s additional stimulus on the horizon.
US:
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CPI (12:30 GMT). According to projections, CPI inflation picked up by 0.2% m/m in July from 0% m/m in June, but should stay at the 1.7% y/y level. Core figures are seen unchanged at 0.2%. The small monthly increase won’t be considered as an argument against further easing from the Fed.
Thursday, August 16
Britain:
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Retail sales (8:30 GMT). Analysts don’t expect retail sales to cheer up the market: the reading will likely be low in July (+0.1% m/m), the same as in June.
Euro area:
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CPI (9:00 GMT). Inflation is forecasted to stay at 2.4% y/y in July, same as the 2.4% y/y reading in June.
US:
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Housing starts (12:30 GMT). The index may have remained at 760K last month. The indicator was slightly growth since the second half of 2011, but remains far below the levels seen in 2007-2008.
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Building permits (12:30 GMT). The index is seen slightly up at 770K in July vs. 760K in June. The dynamics of the indicator has been much similar to the one of the housing starts.
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Unemployment claims (12:30 GMT). Jobless claims may have increased from 361K to 365K.
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT). The index is seen below zero for the fourth consecutive month at -4.3 in August from -12.9 in July. This would be an improvement, though negative reading means that US manufacturing sector is still weakening.
New Zealand:
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PPI Input (22:45 GMT). The index growth rate slid from 0.5% in Q1 q/q to 0.3% in Q2, analysts say.
Friday, August 17
Euro area:
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German PPI (6:00 GMT). Producer prices were worse than expected for 3 months in a row. The prices fell in the past 2 months. Specialists forecast a rise of 0.4% m/m in July.
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Current account (8:00 GMT). We saw 3 consecutive months of surpluses with a record 10.9 billion euro surplus in May. June will probably see a lower, but still positive figure of 7.8 billion.
Canada:
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CPI (12:30 GMT). Both CPI and core CPI are predicted to rise by 0.2% m/m in July, confirming that the previous 0.4% m/m drop was an exception.
US:
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Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment (13:55 GMT). US consumer confidence continued declining: it dropped to 72.3 points in July from 73.5 in the previous month. A tiny increase to 72.5 is expected in August.
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