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June 11 - 17: main events of the week ★★★
Tuesday, June 12:
Japan: Tertiary industry activity is expected to increase by 0.4% in April after a 0.6% decline in March.
Australia: May NAB business confidence index will be released (in April the index reached 4). Australia: The RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak at the Prime Minister's Economic Forum.
Euro zone: Greek T-bill auction. Dutch 20-year bond auction.
Great Britain: According to economists, manufacturing production in April increased by 0.1% compared with a 0.9% growth in March.
U.S.: Federal budget balance is expected to show $107.2B deficit in May after $59.1B surplus.
Wednesday, June 13:
Euro zone: Industrial production in the region is forecasted to drop by 0.9% in April after a 0.3% decline in March. Germany holds a 10-year bond auction. Italy holds a T-bill auction, Germany - a bond auction.
U.S.: Retail sales are to decrease by 0.1% while core retail sales (excluding automobiles) – to increase by the same percent. Producer price index may go down by 0.6% in May. The April disappointing results, when a 0.2% decline was recorded, reinforce the worries about the further monetary policy easing. Business inventories may increase by 0.4% April. Later in the day a 10-year bond auction will be held.
Thursday, June 14:
New Zealand: The Reserve bunk of New Zealand is widely expected to keep its official cash rate (OCR) at 2.5%. According to the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard, inflation is within the expected range and the domestic economy is showing signs of recovery; the global outlook, however, remains unclear. Some investors see the downward risks for the OCR after the Reserve bunk Australia unexpectedly cut the rates to 3.5% last week. The RBNZ senior economist Stephen Toplis, however, believes it is unnecessary for the regulator to cut rates in the manner the market has been trying to price.
Switzerland: The Swiss Libor rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0-0.25%. The announcement is to be accompanied by the central bunk’s quarterly monetary policy statement and followed by a press conference. The SNB is also to publish its financial stability report on Thursday.
Euro zone: The ECB is to issue its monthly bulletin, which reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions. The regional CPI growth in May is forecasted remain at 2.4%, while core CPI – at 1.6%. Italy holds a bond auction.
Canada: Housing price index, a key indicator of the housing industry’s health, may increase by 0.5% in April after a 0.3% growth in March.
U.S.: Core CPI is predicted to gain 0.2% in May, while CPI is expected to decline by 0.2%. A slight rise of unemployment claims to 378,000 is expected. In the previous week the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped to 377,000 from 389,000, while economists expected claims to reach 381,000. U.S. holds a 30-year bond auction.
Great Britain: The bunk of England Governor Mervyn King is to speak.
Friday, June 15:
Japan: The bunk of Japan is expected to leave the overnight call rate at the minimum of 0.1%. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bunk’s rate statement and a press conference to discuss the rate decision.
Euro zone: The ECB President Mario Draghi speaks.
Canada: Manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health, are expected to go up by 2.2% in April after a 1.9% growth in March.
Great Britain: Britain’s trade deficit is expected to decline slightly to 8.5B.
U.S.: Empire State Manufacturing Index in June is to decline to 14.1 from the previous 17.1 print, while the industrial production in May is likely to increase by 0.1% vs. a 1.1% growth in April. Capacity utilization rate, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, is expected to remain at 79.2%. Economists forecast the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index to decline to 77.5 in June. In May the key indicator of the consumer spending reached its highest level in four years (79.3), what is a good sign for the U.S. economy.
Sunday, June 17:
Euro zone: Greece will hold the new parliamentary elections after the vote last month failed to form a coalition. According to recent surveys, 23% of the respondents support the pro-bailout party New Democracy, and 11.2% - the socialist Pasok party, which also backs the rescue program. 22%, however, support the anti- bailout Syriza party. In France the second round of parliamentary elections will be held. In the first round of the parliamentary elections the Socialist Party of President Francois Hollande is expected to receive a majority.