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August 7-10: economic events
Tuesday, August 7
Australia: According to the consensus forecast, the RBA will keep rates unchanged at 3.5% after cutting the borrowing costs in May and June and staying on hold in July. Australian headline inflation was at 1.2% in June, at the lowest annual level in 13 years. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, which abstracts from volatile price movements, grew by 2% in June (y/y), which is at the bottom of the Reserve bunk’s inflation target of between 2-3%. Although the RBA has room to cut rates, it seems that the central bunk may wait to see how the things elsewhere in the world are going. The nation’s Treasurer Wayne Swan said Australia's “rock solid economic fundamentals” were in stark contrast to conditions in Europe and elsewhere.
Switzerland: The unemployment rate fell from 3.2% in April to 2.9% in May an June. In July the figure is expected to remain unchanged. The SNB’s foreign currency reserves have been rising so far and rose to CHF 364 billion in June – now July data is due for release. Swiss CPI fell by 0.3% in June and analysts expect a sharper decline of 0.5% in July. Deflationary figures indicate a slowdown in economic activity.
Euro area: Italian GDP may have contracted by 0.7% in Q2 (q/q) after declining by 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year. This would be the forth quarterly decline in a row.
Britain: Manufacturing production may have contracted by 3.9% after adding 1.2% in May, surviving the biggest decline since March 2009. Also watch the NIESR GDP estimate which attempts to estimate the quarterly GDP release on a monthly basis. The previous reading was a weak -0.2%. The markets will be hoping for a July reading in positive territory.
US: Another speech of Bernanke. This time the Chairman will dwell on the need of financial education in the wake of the recent financial crisis. The audience will be allowed to ask questions.
Canada: Ivey PMI fell from 60.5 in May to 49.0 in June. An improvement to 51.7 is predicted in July. Building permits, on the contrary, may have dropped by 3.5% in June after rising by 7.4% in the previous month.
Japan: According to the forecasts, Japanese current account increased from 0.28T yen in May to 0.75T in June. Note however, that for 2 last times actual data came far below the predictions.
Wednesday, August 8
Switzerland: SECO consumer climate index, released every 3 months, been moving upwards in the last 3 releases. This time economists are looking forward to another gain in July to -4 points from the previous reading of -8.
Britain: The bunk of England will release Inflation report which may contain clues for the next moves of the central bunk. The BoE will likely lower its current growth forecast as there were enough disappointing data since the report was last time released in May. Lower forecasts increase the likelihood of the BoE’s announcing additional asset purchases in September, though the current round of stimulus finishes only in November. The bunk is expected to predict almost zero growth for the economy in 2012, while just 3 months ago it was forecasting growth of around 0.7%.
New Zealand: The nation’s unemployment rate may have declined from 6.7% in Q1 to 6.5% in Q2.
Thursday, August 9
Australia: Australian labor market may have added 10.3K jobs in July after the unexpected contraction of 27K in June, while the unemployment rate may edge up from 5.2% to 5.3%.
China: Analysts predict CPI to continue its declining trend and even hit a 30-month low of below 2%. Low inflation is welcome news to government officials looking to enact additional stimulus measures in the face of slowing growth. The recent PMI figures have pointed to evidence that recent efforts by the Chinese authorities to reinvigorate growth have at least managed to stabilize the economy, though a return to trend growth still seems elusive. Markets expect retail data to show that sales increased by 13.6% y/y in July, down slightly from 13.7% growth in June. Industrial output likely expanded by 9.8%, up from 9.5% in June. Fixed asset investment levels – a key component of China's economic expansion over the past decade – are expected to have edged up to 20.6% growth ytd/y from 20.4% at the end of June.
Japan: The bunk of Japan is expected to keep monetary policy steady but may escalate its warnings over slowing global demand and renewed gains in yen, signaling its readiness to ease again if the economy’s recovery comes under threat. Deflation remains one of the main concerns of Japanese monetary authorities and there’s scope for future stimulus.
US: American trade deficit probably shrank in June as cheaper oil reduced the import bill and slower global growth led to reduced demand for American-made goods. According to the consensus forecast, the gap probably narrowed to $47.5 billion, the 4-month minimum, from $48.7 billion in May. Weekly jobless benefit claims are expected to edge up to 371K from 365K in the previous week.
Friday, August 10
Australia: The RBA releases its quarterly monetary policy statement. In the February the central bunk reduced near-term forecasts for both economic growth and inflation. Then in May the RBA not only reduced near-term economic growth forecasts but also reduced the forecasts at the bottom of its indicative range for growth through to the end of 2013. At the same time, the RBA trimmed inflation forecasts to the end of 2012. This time, the RBA may lift the near-term economic growth estimate but it is likely to retain the medium-term view that economic growth will be around “normal” levels of 3.0-3.25%. Little change is expected in the inflation forecasts with the Reserve bunk projecting that inflation will hold in the 2.0-3.0% target band. In short, the Reserve bunk will leave the door open to further rate cuts over 2012.
China: Trade surplus may have expanded from $31.7B in June to $35.1B in July.
Britain: PPI Input index has been well below the zero line since April. However, the markets are forecasting a much stronger July reading, with an estimate of a 1.3% gain.
Canada: According to the economists, the number of employed people rose by 10.2K in July, while the unemployment rate rose last month to 7.3% from 7.2% in June.
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