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The week ahead: events to watch ★★★
Monday, April 9, 2012 - 06:00
, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, is expected to increase 0.5% in March against a 0.8% growth in Feb.
• U.S.: On Monday a bunch of negative data is expected.
Core retail sales (retail sales excluding automobiles) in March are expected to increase by 0.6% compared with a 0.9% increase in Feb.
Retail sales growth is also forecasted to slow to 0.4% after 1.1% in Feb. Analysts expect the
Empire State Manufacturing Index to stay positive, but to decline from 20.2 to 18.2.
Net Long-term Securities Transactions in Feb. may drop to $41B after outstanding $101B in Jan. Business inventories are forecasted to grow 0.7% in Feb.
• Australia: Minutes of RBA’s recent board meeting release is scheduled.
Sales of new motor vehicles were flat in February, there is no market forecast for March. In the year to February, new motor vehicle sales rose 1.7%.
Tuesday, April 17:
• Britain: CPI in March may grow 3.5% compared with 3.4% in Feb.
• Europe: Spanish, Greek T-bill auctions will take place. In April
German ZEW economic-sentiment indicator is forecasted to decline slightly to 20.2 from 22.3.
• U.S.: Number of
new residential building permits in March may slightly decrease to 0.71M from 0.72M in Feb.
• Canada: According to a consensus-forecast, Bank of Canada may leave the
overnight rate unchanged at 1%. The median forecast in a Reuters poll of 40 economists shows the next interest rate hike will come in the second quarter of 2013. However, analysts at RBS believe the bank statement may be more hawkish than expected.
Manufacturing sales contraction in Feb. may be down to a 0.1% decline against 0.9% in Jan.
Wednesday, April 18
• Europe: Spanish, French bond auctions. Meeting of Group of 20 deputy finance ministers (through April 22).
• Britain: April
meeting minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will be released. At the April MPC meeting, the committee made no further changes to policy after deciding to extend QE by a further £50 billion at its February meeting. Interest rates were also kept low at 0.5% level. The
unemployment rate in February is forecasted to remain at 8.4%. Meanwhile, on the
claimant count, economists are forecasting unemployment to have risen by 6.6K in March versus 7.2K in Feb.
• Canada: Bank of Canada will offer detailed forecasts in its
quarterly Monetary Policy Report, followed by a
press conference by Governor Mark Carney.
• Japan: March
trade deficit is forecasted to expand to 0.43T from 0.31T in February.
• New Zealand: Quarterly CPI may show a 0.6% growth against a 0.3% decline in the last quarter 2011.
Thursday, April 19
• U.S.: Weekly
number of unemployment claims may decline to 370K from 380K on the previous week.
Home resales in March are expected to go up slightly (4.62M versus 4.59M in Feb.).
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, however, may decline to 12.1 compared with the previous 12.5.
Friday, April 20
• Europe: April
German Ifo Business Climate index is forecasted to decrease to 109.6 from 109.8 in March. Also note the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank (through April 22) and the extended deadline for some Greek foreign-law bond holdouts (to tender their bonds and for second leg of debt-restructuring accord).
• Britain: March
retail sales data is expected to show an appreciable 0.4% growth after suffering a sharp decline in February. Retail sales volumes fell 0.8% in February after rising 0.3% in January and 0.7% in December. “If March retail sales do see significant growth, it will significantly boost the likelihood that overall consumer spending was positive in the first quarter and helped the overall economy return to growth after GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2011”, analysts at IHS Global Insight say.
• Canada: CPI may demonstrate a 0.3% growth in March compared with 0.4% in Feb.
Sunday, April 22
• Europe: French presidential election, first round.
